This time last year the UK was recovering from the “beast from the east”. Across the country heating was dialled to max and gas suppliers struggled to keep up with demand. Now a study shows how autumn wind patterns could help utility companies anticipate winter weather.
Normally energy providers use historical data to predict the temperature in the colder months. But British weather is fickle and winters vary, so this technique is unreliable. Instead Prof Adam Scaife, the head of long range prediction at the Met Office, and his colleagues compared atmospheric circulation patterns in November with gas demand the following winter.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, showed air pressure patterns over Europe and the North Atlantic in November correlated closely with the amount of gas used.
The difference between the Iceland low and the Azores high was key. When this difference was lower than normal – known as a negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation – gas usage tended to be high with a large number of exceptional demand days. Similarly, high pressure over the north of the UK and low pressure over the south appeared to presage a hard winter.
