The southwest monsoon is finally knocking on Kerala’s doors, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting very heavy rainfall across the state over the next few days. Several districts have been placed under orange alert as weather conditions become increasingly favorable for the monsoon's advance.
At the same time, residents of Delhi-NCR can also expect relief from the summer heat, with light rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds forecast through June 5. While Kerala is preparing for the official arrival of the southwest monsoon, Delhi-NCR is likely to see repeated spells of rain, thunderstorms, and cooler-than-normal temperatures.
Monsoon Likely to Reach Kerala by June 4
After a brief delay, the IMD has said that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala around June 4. Typically, Kerala receives the first monsoon showers around June 1, marking the official start of India's four-month southwest monsoon season.
ALSO READ: As Nandan Nilekani turns 71, Infosys faces its biggest leadership question
According to the IMD, “Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu around June 4.”
The weather agency also noted that the monsoon is expected to expand into additional parts of the Bay of Bengal around the same time.
Orange Alert for Multiple Kerala Districts
The IMD has warned of very heavy rainfall between June 2 and June 5, issuing orange alerts for several districts. For Tuesday, orange alerts have been issued for:
Malappuram
Kozhikode
Wayanad
The remaining districts are under yellow alert. The warning comes as widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds are expected across Kerala through June 6.
The IMD has also warned that wind speeds may reach 40 kmph to 50 kmph in several parts of the state, increasing the risk of localized disruptions.
Thunderstorms and Gusty Winds Expected
Apart from heavy rain, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are likely across most districts. Only Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam are expected to see relatively less intense weather activity compared to the rest of the state on Tuesday.
Weather officials have advised residents in vulnerable areas, especially hilly regions and flood-prone zones, to stay updated on local advisories as rainfall intensity increases.
Delhi-NCR to Get Rain, Thunderstorms and Cooler Weather
While Kerala prepares for monsoon onset, Delhi-NCR is likely to experience a series of rain-bearing weather systems over the next three days.
The IMD forecast indicates partly cloudy to generally cloudy skies along with intermittent rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds.
June 3 Forecast
Delhi is expected to witness:
Partly cloudy skies
Very light rain or drizzle
Thunderstorms and lightning
Winds of 20-30 kmph, gusting up to 40 kmph
Maximum temperatures are likely to remain between 37°C and 39°C, while minimum temperatures may stay between 26°C and 28°C.
June 4 Forecast
Weather conditions are expected to become more active with:
Light rain spells
Thunderstorms and lightning
Dust storms in some areas
Strong winds reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph
Temperatures are expected to remain below normal despite the humid conditions.
June 5 Forecast
The IMD predicts:
Generally cloudy skies
Light rain and thunderstorms during morning hours
Another spell of very light rain later in the day
Wind speeds of 40-50 kmph with gusts up to 60 kmph
Maximum temperatures may dip further to 36°C-38°C, offering some relief from the heat.
Why the Monsoon Arrival Matters
The southwest monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture, water reservoirs, and overall economy. The seasonal rains account for nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall and are closely monitored by farmers, businesses, and policymakers.
Although the monsoon's arrival in Kerala is only a few days behind schedule, experts continue to watch larger climate patterns that could influence rainfall during the season.
IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall This Year
In its latest weather bulletin, the IMD revised its forecast and projected rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The department said India is expected to receive around 90% of normal monsoon rainfall during 2026.
The LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a long period, usually 30 to 50 years. Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the country's seasonal rainfall LPA stands at 87 cm.
If seasonal rainfall falls below 90% of the LPA, it is categorized as "deficient" by the IMD.
El Niño Could Influence Rainfall
Meteorologists are also keeping an eye on changing ocean conditions in the Pacific. Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually shifting toward El Niño conditions.
The IMD said El Niño is expected to remain weak during June but could strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September. Historically, El Niño events are often linked to reduced monsoon rainfall over India, making them a key factor in seasonal forecasts.
