MIAMI — South Florida remained under a flood watch through late Sunday and a tropical storm warning was in effect for the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida — but there was also a growing sense of relief across the region Friday about barely-holding-it-together Tropical Depression Fred.
At 5 p.m. EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center nudged its projected track farther west as the struggling system, a ragged mess on satellite images, meandered along the coast of Cuba. While forecasters said it was likely to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico, for South Florida it was expected to amount to more more than a soggy weekend.
In Key West, likely to feel some of the first effects, some tours and events were being canceled but tourists out on the street said they had no plans of packing up.
“It’s just going to be more of an adventure,” said Kristen Marciniec, 47, from behind the wheel of a rented golf cart with Faith Morin, 37, both from Massachusetts. “We’ve talked to locals. They’re not too concerned.”
Fred, though disorganized, was dropping heavy rains across Cuba and rain. With the shift west in track, forecasters dropped rainfall projects a bit but heavy and widespread downpours were still expected — from 3 to 6 inches and up to 8 in spots — from late Friday through early Sunday. That much rain can be trouble for flood-prone areas. The Florida Keys and west coast could see tropical-storm-level gusts but the chances were low.
“It’s going to be wet weekend,” said Robert Molleda, a severe weather expert for the service in Miami. “It certainly doesn’t look like a good weekend to be out.”
As of the 5 p.m. advisory, Fred “remains disorganized,” with sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour, while dousing parts of Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas with heavy rain. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph and should move near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday, according to the hurricane center. “Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday,” according to the advisory.
The National Hurricane Center on Friday was also monitoring another tropical system that was forecast to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning, first passing over Hispaniola and curving northward toward the Bahamas — and toward Florida. The storm, which would be named Grace, would not finish its jaunt over the Dominican Republic and Haiti until Tuesday morning, according to a Friday afternoon forecast.
That system, while moving quickly, was expected to slow down, giving it time to strengthen in two to three days. “The system will be moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated,” the hurricane center wrote in an analysis.
For now, governments, businesses and residents on Friday across Florida were preparing for an expected deluge from Fred.
At Zoo Miami, workers were storing dry food like grain and hay, and monitoring water levels in exhibit pools and moats. Officials may close the zoo Saturday if the rain is forecast to be get too bad.
Long-planned pool parties, camping trips and outdoor charity events got axed. Boaters bid adieu to their plans: Saturday’s Bonito Blast, a Treasure Coast fishing tournament that raises money for wounder veterans, was canceled.
In Key West, tour companies, like Peak Charters, were halting weekend excursions, just in case. “We should be expected rain & windy. Nothing too crazy,” the company wrote wrote on its Facebook page, under the hashtag: “#FreakingFred.”
Taylor Freyer, of Sarasota, was in town with a dozen friends to celebrate her 28th birthday on Monday. Fred wasn’t going to ruin their vacation, they said.
“We were going to go on a tiki boat but that got canceled,” Freyer said, as she and her friends were getting ready to ride off on rented scooters. “We’re going lobstering Monday.”
Fred is forecast to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through Friday night. It should make a turn toward the northwest by Saturday though forecasters earlier in the day said the models were in disagreement over its track, some putting close to the Florida Gulf coast and others pushing it farther into east-central Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane center says the typically best-performing models show Fred being near or offshore of Florida’s west coast by Sunday.
Fred could see some additional strengthening before making its final landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The tropical storm should then weaken as it moves inland and crawls up Florida’s west coast, the hurricane center says. It should be a depression again by the time it reaches Alabama or Georgia.
Miami-Dade, Broward and the Keys are in for a wet weekend, with 3 to 7 inches of rain possible starting Friday. The bad weather will stay through the weekend and into Monday, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches of rain. A similar forecast was issued for central Florida north towards the Big Bend region.
Urban and small stream flooding are a possible. Some areas in northern Florida could also see moderate river flooding. Hazardous marine conditions, including a high risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches will also be possible through the weekend, especially on Saturday.
The Florida Keys tropical storm warning is in effect west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The Florida Bay is also under a warning. Forecasters have also extended the tropical storm watch from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood.
“It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be,” Forecaster Jack Beven wrote in his analysis Friday.
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