At EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta), the field of 32 was cut in half as NASCAR's five-week in-season challenge officially got underway. Even with the expected chaos of a drafting track, no one expected a 23-car pileup that would help the No. 32 and No. 31 seeds defeat the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.
There are many underdogs left while big names will be forced to sit on the sidelines for the rest of the competition. No fan can win the $1 million prize, as literally every bracket was busted at Atlanta, but one of the remaining 16 drivers will still go on to collect $1 million for themselves.
Round 2 takes place at the Chicago Street Course and with rain potentially impacting the event again, anything can happen.
Here's a look at the eight matchups and who we think will advance into Round 3 at Sonoma...
Note: The NASCAR in-season challenge only offers a monetary prize and does not impact the championship
Ty Dillon (No. 32 seed) defeats Brad Keselowski (No. 17 seed)
The bottom seed lives to fight another day! After ousting Denny Hamlin at Atlanta, Dillon will also eliminate Keselowski at Chicago, but he won't need a 23-car pileup this time. Dillon is a solid road racer and ran inside the top ten for a large portion of the Cup race in Mexico City. He doesn't have as much experience as Keselowski -- the 2012 NASCAR Cup champion -- but Brad has struggled on road and street courses in the Next Gen era.
Alex Bowman (No. 8 seed) defeats Bubba Wallace (No. 9 seed)
It's hard to bet against the defending winner of the event. Wallace has shown clear improvement on road and street courses, but Bowman is clearly on another level at these types of tracks. Of course, Bowman won this race last year, but he also scored a top ten at COTA and a top five in Mexico City in 2025. Meanwhile, Wallace's best result at Chicago is 13th.
Chase Elliott (No. 5 seed) defeats John Hunter Nemechek (No. 12 seed)
Fresh off a big win at his home track in Atlanta, Elliott is the definitive favorite over Nemechek. While John-Hunter finished a very strong sixth in Mexico City, Elliott was on the podium. And if not for a Lap 1 incident at COTA, he could have contended for the win there. He also has a podium finish on the streets of Chicago while Nemechek placed 35th in his only start there.
Erik Jones (No. 20 seed) defeats Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 29 seed)
Stenhouse has a best finish of sixth at Chicago while Jones has only reached 16th, but Jones is our pick here. It will be a bit of a toss-up as these drivers seem equally matched when it comes to skill level at road/street courses, and it may come down to who can keep their nose clean while in the middle of the pack.
Ryan Preece (No. 15 seed) defeats Noah Gragson (No. 31 seed)
Gragson is no road racer and infamously crashed several times in the rain during the inaugural Chicago Street Course race. These two drivers have shown similar speed at Chicago in the past, but Preece has really upped his game in 2025. He won a stage at COTA, qualified on the front row in Mexico City, and has been remarkably consistent this year. If both of these drivers stay out of trouble, Preece takes this battle.
Tyler Reddick (No. 23 seed) defeats Carson Hocevar (No. 26 seed)
Reddick absolutely could have won this race one year ago if he hadn't made an unforced error and tagged the wall while pursuing Bowman. Even still, he managed to score a runner-up finish while Hocevar ended the day outside the top 20 last year. He also has a lot of enemies on track, which will make things extra difficult for him this weekend. Even if no one does anything, it's a major distraction.
Ty Gibbs (No. 6 seed) defeats AJ Allmendinger (No. 22 seed)
This will be a fascinating battle. Gibbs' 2025 season has been a struggle, but he showed incredible pace in Mexico and looked like the only driver who could even put up a fight against Van Gisbergen. And then you have Allmendinger, who is one of the best road racers in the sport. However, Chicago has not been very kind to him with a best finish of 17th. Meanwhile, of the drivers who have run both Cup races at Chicago, Gibbs is tied with Michael McDowell for the best average finish after placing ninth in 2023 and third in 2024.
Chris Buescher (No. 3 seed) defeats Zane Smith (No. 14 seed)
Buescher finished tenth in the first Cup race in Chicago and then 20th last year. Smith beat Buescher in 2024 and could definitely beat him again, but Buescher is also a proven winner at road courses. He beat van Gisbergen in a head-to-head fight for the win at Watkins Glen last year, and few can claim such a feat since SVG has come over to NASCAR.
