What’s the Tories’ story?
Jeremy Corbyn’s conference speech – and a well-received political broadcast released as delegates made their way home – presented a coherent narrative about what’s gone wrong in Britain, and how Labour would seek to fix it.
Since Theresa May’s “burning injustices” speech when she first arrived in Downing Street, the Conservatives have struggled to offer an equivalent – not least because Brexit is so all-consuming, and it is hard to hit refresh when your party has been in government for eight years.
The prime minister does occasionally tell a good story – as when she announced £20bn of extra spending for the NHS in June, drawing on her own experiences as a patient, and praising “the model of healthcare that reflects our values as a people”.
But Conservative MPs anxious that their party is drifting sideways are keen to hear the pitch the prime minister will make – and a few consumer-friendly policy offerings wouldn’t go amiss either.
Who’s in charge of Brexit?
May’s advisers were hoping for warm words at the Salzburg summit last week, rather than the diplomatic equivalent of a slap in the face. But her brutal trolling at the hands of Macron and Tusk may not have been as unhelpful as it must have felt at the time.
Grassroots Conservative members, even those who might be sceptical about the details of Chequers, are likely to circle the wagons around the prime minister after her tough post-Salzburg statement, urging EU27 leaders to treat her with “respect”.
One senior Conservative said: “I actually think she’ll be cheered to the rafters – it’s after conference that the trouble really starts.”
But away from the main conference stage in Birmingham, evidence of party disunity on the crucial political decision facing Britain won’t be hard to find.
Boris Johnson’s speech at a lunchtime fringe meeting on Tuesday will be the hot ticket; while Jacob Rees-Mogg is hosting his own event, covering “what Conservative MPs are doing in parliament to ensure the referendum result is respected”, and “why a super Canada deal is better than Chequers”.
After Amber Rudd became the latest high-profile Conservative MP to moot the idea of a second referendum on Wednesday, the voices of those who would like to see a closer relationship than Chequers would allow – or even to cancel Brexit altogether – are also likely to be prominent.
Who’s next after May?
Several members of Theresa May’s cabinet already give the appearance of treating just about every public outing as an audition for the top job; but in Birmingham they will get a chance to make their pitch directly to the party members who will ultimately decide who will succeed the prime minister.
Among the rising stars in the cabinet whose speeches will be closely watched onstage and at fringe meetings are Michael Gove, who has urged colleagues to back the Chequers plan on the advice that it could be changed under a different prime minister once Brexit is secure (hint, hint), and Sajid Javid, whose Home Office brief will be the key plank of the prime minister’s speech on immigration.
Jeremy Hunt, the new foreign secretary, who has spent his first months in post demonstrating how differently he approaches the role to his predecessor, will also be closely watched.
Johnson will speak at one fringe meeting only, expected to be packed to the rafters, but his presence will be keenly felt, especially after his 4,000-word opus attacking the Chequers plan in the Telegraph just 48 hours before the conference.
Defending capitalism
Labour’s bumper offer to voters including shares for workers and nationalising water, rail and mail, as well as attractive spending offers on childcare and green jobs, have some Tories worried they are losing the opposing argument.
Many are likely to make the case that the Tories need their own social justice agenda, but other colleagues will say the party must make the arguments anew for capitalism, free markets and entrepreneurialism.
At the head of the pack is Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, who has said the party can attract younger voters by emphasising personal freedom and innovation, including championing tech companies like Uber and Airbnb.
Business minister Sam Gyimah has called for the party to give its full-throated support to business at the conference, to draw a clear line between the Tories and Labour.
“When we Conservatives veer between talking business down, ignoring voters’ concerns, and telling businesses to shut up – or worse – it is a clear sign we have lost our way,” he said, a coded criticism of Johnson, who is reported to have said “fuck business” in response to concerns about Brexit.
A personal re-boot for the PM
The last party conference could not have gone worse for the prime minister. Just months after a punishing election where the party lost a 20-point lead and its parliamentary majority, May’s conference speech was interrupted by a protester who proffered a P45, then a coughing fit where the chancellor had to intervene to offer her a throat sweet. Finally, letters from the party’s slogan began falling off the wall behind her.
The past year has not been easy, with the resignations of cabinet ministers including allies such as Amber Rudd as well as critics like David Davis and Boris Johnson, and votes lost in the House of Commons. Most recently has been the disastrous summit in Salzburg when EU leaders rounded on her Chequers plan.
Yet there are signs the prime minister can still rescue her premiership from total disaster. Crunch votes in the Commons have been fraught but won for the most part and she won praise after a punchy response to the Salzburg rebuff.
Facing mutiny from the membership and from her own MPs this autumn, May will want to use her speech to reaffirm who is in charge, for now, and put to bed any other Brexit option that her rivals are pushing.
