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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Eleanor Ainge Roy in Dunedin and Charlotte Graham-McLay in Wellington

New Zealand acts on coronavirus as Ardern warns of recession worse than GFC

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern said the nation was dealing with ‘extraordinary circumstances’. Photograph: Loren Elliott/Reuters

Mass gatherings of more than 500 people have been banned in New Zealand as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the country was likely to experience a recession worse than the 2008 global financial crisis.

Unveiling fresh measures to tackle the coronavirus, the prime minister said “we don’t want to be Italy”.

The restrictions on gatherings will not apply to schools or universities but will apply to both indoor and outdoor meetings.

There have been eight cases of coronavirus in New Zealand, and Ardern said it was prudent and “safer” to cancel events such as art shows, music festivals and cultural gatherings. There was no end date for the ban, and Ardern said New Zealanders needed to prepare and adapt “to a new normal”.

“These are extraordinary circumstances. When we have emergencies, when we have situations that are unprecedented, New Zealanders work together. We are asking you to work together – with a little distance between you.” Ardern said.

“Look out for older New Zealanders, look out for kaumatua [elders].”

At 1am on Monday tough new restrictions came into force on the country’s borders, meaning everyone landing in New Zealand from overseas would be required to self-isolate for 14 days. Those arriving from the Pacific Islands were exempt.

Visiting cruise ships have been banned till the end of June.

Ardern said the government was committed to enforcing the self-isolation rules and anyone who flouted them was “not welcome” and would be deported.

It was also an option to “put a police officer on their door” if someone was not adhering to self-isolation rules, Ardern said, which required they largely stayed inside and kept two metres physical distance from others, including family members.

Around 9,000 people are currently in self-isolation around the country. Director general of health Ashley Bloomfield said while it was crucial people followed the rules for the sake of the most vulnerable in the community, they were still able to do outdoor activities like gardening, walking or biking, as long as it was not in public areas and they were alone.

Bloomfield said New Zealand was a “high-trust” society and compliance with self-isolation measures had been very good, with no one being deported or having enforcement measures taken against them so far.

On Tuesday a significant economic stimulus package will be unveiled by the finance minister, which Ardern said would focus on keeping people in jobs.

On Monday New Zealand’s Reserve Bank made a surprise slash to the official cash rate, cutting it from 1% to 0.25%, and Air New Zealand, the national carrier, announced it would reduce its international flights by 85% in the next few months and placed itself in a trading halt. It was also expected around 30% of the Air New Zealand workforce would lose their jobs, the pilots association, said after crisis meetings with the national carrier.

“The negative impact on the New Zealand economy is, and will continue to be, significant,” the Reserve Bank said in a statement. “Demand for New Zealand’s goods and services will be constrained, as will domestic production. Spending and investment will be subdued for an extended period while the responses to the Covid-19 virus evolve.”

The unscheduled announcement by the bank said the rate would remain for the next 12 months.

Cameron Bagrie from Bagrie Economics said New Zealand was in a more fortunate position than a lot of other countries as the virus hadn’t gotten a firm hold yet – and that was an opportunity to prepare.

But the travel restrictions came at a cost: a “horror scenario” for New Zealand’s tourism sector.

Tourism is New Zealand’s biggest export earner, contributing NZ$15.9bn to the country’s economy and directly employing 8% of the workforce.

“The flow-on effect to the broader economy is huge,” Bagrie said, predicting “thick and fast” job losses.

“We’ve put the money away for a rainy day and we’re now facing a dreadful downpour,” he added, referring to the New Zealand government’s tendency towards fiscal caution thus far in its term.

On Monday Air New Zealand announced that it would reduce its services to a skeleton staff. Routes suspended by the airline will include those between Auckland and Chicago, San Francisco, Houston, Buenos Aires, Vancouver, Tokyo, Honolulu, Denpasar, and Taipei, from 30 March until the end of June.

“They’re going to be losing money for the next two years. They’ve actually got a pretty good balance sheet to absorb this stuff, but we’re into the unknowns,” Bagrie said.

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