When Lando Norris made his second stop of the Brazilian Grand Prix at the end of lap 50, it put Max Verstappen - who'd started from the pitlane - in the lead. Verstappen later made a final stop while just under seven seconds ahead, ceding the lead as Red Bull doubted that the four-time champion could hang on with aging tyres.
Verstappen was eight seconds ahead of Norris when the Briton emerged from the pitlane, falling to seven seconds two laps later. With 16 laps on the mediums, while Norris now had box-fresh C3s, Red Bull called Verstappen in on lap 54 when the lead had dropped to 6.5s.
This put Verstappen down to fourth, but the Dutchman was now equipped with soft tyres and made his play for the podium. He closed down George Russell, who was managing brake temperatures, and scythed past with a move to book his place on the podium.
However, Andrea Kimi Antonelli absorbed the subsequent pressure to retain second place, despite Verstappen's dogged pursuit of another position.
Most wondered if Verstappen would have been able to at least clinch second, had he stayed out on the mediums. However, Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies stated that the degradation was too high to win with that set of tyres. The lap time data shows that, as Norris was breaking into the low 1m13s, Verstappen was destined for a series of laps in the 1m14s that would have allowed Norris to reel him in.
"No, we don't think it was winnable. We would probably never know where we would have finished, but obviously it's a discussion that the guys had on the pitwall," Mekies said.
"At some stage you need to make the call, and the call was made. I think it gave us a chance to have a very strong go at the podium. Ultimately we got it.
"Maybe one lap more you would get a P2. No, I don't think there was any way you could have kept a P1 if you just looked at the tyre deg and where you were."
How Verstappen would have contended with Antonelli is another matter; the Italian was 12s behind Verstappen when the reigning champion's stopped, and for a time was lapping faster than Norris on the C3.
Extrapolating from their respective laps affected by the depreciation of the tyre, the Mercedes would have at least got close in the remaining 15 laps; Antonelli was 0.8s up on Verstappen in the latter's final two laps on his medium tyre.
McLaren team boss Andrea Stella agreed that the degradation was probably too high for Verstappen to risk going to the end of the race, and suggested that there was a chance that the tyres would have gone away completely.
"First of all I was hoping [Verstappen would pit] because it made our life a little bit easier!" Stella explained. "Jokes apart, today the level of degradation was very high and at some stage I think the tyres just ran out of rubber.
"I think they knew at Red Bull that it would have been quite a significant gamble to go to the end with the same set and considering the fact that they had a new soft to put on, I think that was the right thing to do.
"I think staying on the point of Red Bull, today they definitely took advantage of having new tyres, new medium, new medium, new soft, but at the same time they showed a performance and a pace in the race that is meaningful.
"Without the situation yesterday in qualifying, I think Verstappen would have been there for the victory."
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