After a gruelling campaign Kenya’s anticipated election has come to an end with provisional results showing an almost unassailable lead for the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta, beating his long-time rival and opposition leader Raila Odinga and gaining 54% of the vote (above the 51% needed to make him the constitutionally mandated leader).
For many Kenyans, though, the vote has a feeling of deja vu about it. Odinga has said he will not concede defeat, and called the election a fraud, alleging rigging and tampering of the electronic vote-tallying system by the Kenyatta camp, evoking memories of the 2013 elections that were hotly contested and vehemently protested.
The opposition coalition disputed the results and announced their own alternative tallies that show Odinga leading Kenyatta by more than a million votes, adding more confusion to a heated election.
But as these two political veterans squared off, neutrals hoped for results to reflect a new Kenya that would shun age-old stereotypes and rivalries. They were looking for fresh faces that would represent the hopes and ambitions of the country’s youthful population, a breakdown of traditional votes on tribal lines and the election of women into positions they have never previously occupied.
Historically, Kenya’s elections have been deeply personal and highly ethnicised, fuelling an almost unnatural ambition among the select few who represent a majority duped every five years into voting for “their” man, irrespective of the current state of affairs.
In 2010 Kenyans endorsed a new constitution that significantly reshaped the structure of the state. This was an attempt to reduce the stakes of the election, to offer voters a wider choice of representation and, hopefully, avoid a repeat of the 2007 crisis, where more than 1,000 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced during weeks of chaos after a prolonged and disputed election.
Power and resources were distributed more evenly, notably by guaranteeing that at least 15% of all national revenue would be allocated to 47 regional governorates controlled by elected assemblies and governors. For the first time, at least three women have been elected as governors, dethroning male incumbents thought to have both the influence and the money to successfully defend their seats.
Patronage has always been the secret ingredient to the success of any politician in Kenya. A huge percentage of those elected pledge their allegiance and owe their existence to either Kenyatta or Odinga. But the latest vote produced a few surprises, with some constituencies going against the grain and electing individuals with no known allegiance to the big boys. For instance, a constituency in central Kenya that voted overwhelmingly for the president’s party also elected a 23-year old student, standing as an independent, to parliament.
But change didn’t come everywhere. One of the country’s most famous activists, Boniface Mwangi caught the attention of largely urban online activists this year. He represented a great hope for many – someone who could institute change from within. However Mwangi, who was vying for the seat of MP for Starehe Constituency in Nairobi, finished a distant third.
Demographically, Kenya’s population is becoming younger and younger. But the challenges of nationhood like the tribalism that bedevilled their forefathers continue to haunt a new generation.
Voting patterns are still set up as ethnic blocks – indicating that although the 54-year-old democracy that is east Africa’s largest economy has undergone monumental changes since independence, some things still remain the same. The politics of tribe and patronage persist, political change trickles along, with little sign of a variation in the personalities dominating the space, or any shift in ideology.
• Daniel Wesangula is a freelance writer specialises in human rights, health, energy and refugee affairs
