Mountain West Basketball: Way-Too-Early Top 25 Roundup
Aztecs’ shot at preseason Top 25 hinges on Flynn’s decision
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SDSU is receiving lots of early love, but most of it comes with a caveat.
In the wake of the cancellation of the 2019-20 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many pollsters and pundits have already pivoted toward next season. While much of the offseason coverage relates to the transfer portal, recruiting, and the NBA Draft, there is another springtime trend that has popped its head up a little earlier than usual this year.
The “way-too-early” Top 25 list.
These lists are an amalgamation of residual feelings about teams from the previous season and the hype surrounding the incoming talent for the next campaign. They are necessarily more art than science, as the landscape of college basketball will surely experience a few seismic shifts over the coming months.
Hence, “way-too-early.”
Still, these lists provide an interesting glimpse into the current perception of the college basketball world. The question as it pertains to this site, then, is simple:
Where does the Mountain West fit into that picture?
For now, only one team is getting any love in the early polls, and that is San Diego State. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise, as the Aztecs are coming off a 30-2 season in which they had a chance to become a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and were legitimate national title contenders.
But much of the love for the Aztecs is contingent on the return of Malachi Flynn. Even without Flynn, though, Brian Dutcher will be bringing back a squad of talented, battle-tested players who will be itching to replicate the success from this past season.
Without further ado, here’s a roundup of prominent Way-Too-Early Top 25 lists that include the Aztecs, starting with those that have San Diego State ranked highest.
Mark Cooper, TheScore.com; SDSU Rank: #4
Cooper writes: “This spot is contingent on the return of All-American Malachi Flynn (17.6 points, 5.1 assists per game). If he’s back, the Aztecs will be stacked again with Matt Mitchell, Jordan Schakel, and Trey Pulliam returning, plus the addition of Cal State Northridge shooter Terrell Gomez (44.2% from 3-point range).”
John Wilner, The Mercury News; SDSU Rank: #9
Wilner writes: “Will he or won’t he? If point guard Malachi Flynn returns, the Aztecs should keep humming — all the way to a high seed in the NCAAs. If Flynn departs, then a step back (or two) seems likely. Matt Mitchell is best as a complementary scorer, not the first option.”
Rob Dauster, NBC Sports; SDSU Rank: #10
Dauster writes: “The key here is going to be Malachi Flynn. A redshirt junior that transferred into the program from Washington State, Flynn is an All-American at the point that allows Brian Dutcher’s offense to run the way he wants it to run.
Losing Yanni Wetzel will hurt, but Nathan Mensah started over him at the start of the year, and the defense that K.J. Feagin provided will be missed. But with Matt Mitchell back, he and Flynn should be able to provide enough firepower that the system will still run just fine. Remember, the Aztecs are coming off of a season where they lost just two games and will return 3.5 starters, including an All-American, if Flynn is back.”
Kevin Flaherty, 247Sports; SDSU Rank: #11
Flaherty writes: “Malachi Flynn was one of the nation’s best guards this season, piloting the Aztecs to a 30-2 record. He was also just a junior, and he currently sits at No. 42 on ESPN’s list. This ranking is obviously dependent on him coming back to school. Losing Yanni Wetzell hurts; Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel returning is huge. If Nathan Mensah can come back fully from a blood clot in his lungs that cost him most of the season — and there was talk he might make it back for the NCAA Tournament — San Diego State would get back a big man who started the first 12 games of the season.”
Connor Muldowney, FanSided; SDSU Rank: #13
Muldowney writes: “It looked like San Diego State was poised to go undefeated in 2019-20, but the Aztecs had a couple of slip-ups, including in the Mountain West title game. Still, San Diego State should be elite once again, potentially pushing for an unbeaten season in a winnable Mountain West. As long as Malachi Flynn returns, the Aztecs will be one of the best mid-majors in the nation again.”
Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY; SDSU Rank: #15
Gleeson writes: “Coming off a storybook season in which the Aztecs almost went undefeated, replicating 2019-20 could be a tall task for coach Brian Dutcher. All-America guard Malachi Flynn will have a tough decision to make on whether to return or pursue an NBA future. Perhaps an NCAA tournament-less season could convince him to stay. The key loss is starting big man Yanni Wetzell to graduation.”
Gary Parrish, CBS Sports; SDSU Rank: #16
Parrish writes: “San Diego State was the biggest surprise of this season – evidence being how the Aztecs started 97th at KenPom before finishing sixth. A big reason for that was Malachi Flynn’s breakout season. And assuming the All-American point guard returns for his senior year, San Diego State will again be the team to beat in the Mountain West Conference and a real factor on the national stage too.”
Jon Rothstein, College Hoops Today; SDSU Rank: #16
Rothstein did not write a full team preview for SDSU, but he does lay out the potential starting five and rotation for the Aztecs in 2020-21. Rothstein is still projecting Flynn as the starting point guard, though he notes Flynn could still go through the NBA Draft process.
Jeff Borzello, ESPN; SDSU Rank: #17
Borzello writes: “This ranking will come down to whether Malachi Flynn decides to return to the Aztecs for his senior season. The former Washington State transfer was the catalyst behind San Diego State’s 30-win season and likely 2-seed in the NCAA tournament, and the Aztecs would tumble outside the top 25 if he decided to go pro. If Flynn is back, coach Brian Dutcher should have the pieces to once again win the Mountain West and be nationally relevant. Double-figure scorers Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell will be back, and hopefully Nathan Mensah is healthy enough to play a consistent role at center. Freshmen Keith Dinwiddie and Che Evans had some notoriety at the high school level and should find spots in the rotation. But there’s nobody to replace Flynn; he might have one of the most important NBA draft decisions in the country.”
Jeremy Woo, SI.com; SDSU Rank: #19
Woo writes: “The Aztecs are one of the toughest teams to place right now, with Malachi Flynn currently mulling a leap to the NBA. If he’s back, San Diego State will likely rank a bit higher than this. If he leaves, it won’t be a Top 25 team, noting how crucial he was in all facets and with starters Yanni Wetzell and KJ Feagin graduating. They’ll get back Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell and hope for better health from center Nathan Mensah, but there won’t be an easy way to replace Flynn, and for now, this is a wait-and-see situation.”
Andy Katz, NCAA.com; SDSU Rank: #20
Katz writes: “The Aztecs are going to defend. And if Malachi Flynn and Matt Mitchell are back the Aztecs won’t have an issue scoring. The pick up of Northridge grad transfer Terrell Gomez, who averaged nearly 20 points a game, should add to the scoring punch. SDSU will be the pick to win the Mountain West.”
Aaron Torres, KY Sports Radio; SDSU Rank: #23
Torres writes: “Key starters KJ Feagin and Yanni Wetzel are gone, so the x-factor will be whether All-American Malachi Flynn returns or not. Had the season played out normally, Flynn would have almost certaintly tested the waters, if not just decided to stay in the draft. Without Flynn, this is still probably the class of the Mountain West, a team which will still return several key pieces off last year’s team.
Matt Mitchell will still be the go-to scorer after averaging over 11 per contest in 2020, and Jordan Schaekel (10 points per game) will still provide deep shooting. Trey Pulliam will take over at point guard and Nathan Mensah will be a shot blocking force down low.”
Other WTE Top 25s that did not rank SDSU:
- Yahoo! Sports (Krysten Peek)
- Busting Brackets (Lukas Harkins)
- CBB Central (Kevin Sweeney)
- HeatCheck CBB (Eli Boettger)
I talked to a few of these pollsters, and they indicated that they were hesitant to rank SDSU until Flynn’s return is confirmed – and also that they would happily rank the Aztecs immediately thereafter.
Whether they make the preseason Top 25 or not, it seems clear that San Diego State has separated itself out as the clear-cut favorite to win the Mountain West in 2021.
But before the Aztecs get too far ahead of themselves, they might do well to remember that Nevada and Utah State were thought to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack in the past two seasons, respectively. In 2018-19, the Aggies usurped the Wolf Pack. Last season, it was the Aztecs who dethroned Utah State.
So now the question becomes: which school will threaten the Aztecs for MW supremacy in 2020-21?
For now, it’s still way too early to answer that question.
Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
