HOMELESSNESS in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie could increase by more than 40 per cent within a year, a new report has found.
The Equity Economics report 'A Wave of Disadvantage Across NSW: Impact of COVID-19' found rising unemployment during the pandemic may cause homelessness in the state to soar by 24 per cent by June 2021.
But in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie - where it predicts unemployment will rise to 12.3 per cent - the report forecasts homelessness will increase by 40.5 per cent; "housing distress" will rise 33.8 per cent; and suicide rates will jump 20.4 per cent - only second to Sydney and the city's "inner south".
Modelling in the report, released by the NSW Council of Social Service, predicts the number of 20-to-24 year old people experiencing severe mental distress in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie will rise 42.3 per cent, and children at risk of serious harm will jump 44.9 per cent.
It also forecasts a 4.2 per cent increase in police reports for domestic abuse.
Rick Prosser, the chief executive of Newcastle's Soul Cafe, was not surprised by the "shocking" statistics.
"We knew back in March, when lockdown started and the community started to be impacted by COVID, that domestic violence was going to increase," he said. "We knew families were going to be impacted greatly by unemployment. We knew suicide was going to increase.
"With the winding back of funding for those who have been affected by unemployment, the consequences have been enormous. The impact, tremendous."
Mr Prosser said time would tell whether the modelling used in the report would prove true.
"But just through our work at the Soul Cafe, we have seen an increase," he said.
"There are people accessing our charity who have never accessed these sorts of charities before.
"Your heart goes out to people caught up in this.
"People are in situations and circumstances who wouldn't have dreamed that this could happen at the start of the year.
"At Soul Cafe we say: 'Never judge a person by the chapter of life you're reading now. There has been other chapters that have contributed, and hopefully we can help them rewrite the next one'."
The report says the larger percentage increases in the Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, as well as Sydney city, was due to higher levels of existing homelessness, and differences in the predicted increase in unemployment in those areas.
It forecasts unemployment in NSW will peak at 9.5 per cent in January - calling them the "highest unemployment figures in NSW for a generation".
The Hunter's unemployment rate jumped back up to 9 per cent in September.
Community Housing Industry Association NSW chief, Mark Degotardi, said the state was facing a "looming catastrophe" that could see 9000 more Australians without a home and 88,000 more families in housing stress.
"Before COVID-19 community organisations and the property sector were calling for 5000 new social housing properties a year over the next decade," Mr Degotardi said.
"That need is even more pressing now - this report shows when this recession reaches its peak, thousands of struggling families may have nowhere to go.
"There were already over 50,000 households on the social housing waiting list before COVID-19. The private market cannot ensure everyone in NSW can afford a secure roof over their head."
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Newcastle and Lake Macquarie compared to Hunter Valley and NSW
- Unemployment: 12.3 per cent (Hunter Valley: 9.7 per cent; NSW: 8.3 per cent)
- Increase in homelessness: 40.5 per cent (Hunter Valley: 36.8 per cent; NSW: 24 per cent)
- Increase in housing distress: 33.8 per cent (Hunter Valley: 23.8; NSW: 24.3)
- Increase in rate of suicides: 20.4 per cent (Hunter Valley: 16.8; NSW: 11.5)
- Increase in 20-to-24 year olds experiencing severe mental distress: 42.3 per cent (Hunter Valley: 36.3; NSW: 16.8)
- Increase in children at risk of serious harm: 44.9 per cent (Hunter Valley: 38.6; NSW: 24.5)
- Increase in police reports of domestic abuse: 4.2 per cent (Hunter Valley: 2.5; NSW: 1.8)
