THE Washington Post has been forced to issue a correction after its editorial board – which is closely controlled by the billionaire Amazon owner Jeff Bezos – made a wildly incorrect claim about Scotland’s tax system.
The right-wing US newspaper, in a “leader” article expressing its own opinions, had claimed that the SNP Government’s changes to the top rate of income tax had cost the country “somewhere between £15 billion and £30 billion in revenue after increasing the top tax rate to 48 percent”.
This figure was wildly inflated, as Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth confirmed earlier in July that a total of £18.6bn of Scottish Income Tax was raised in the 2024-25 financial year.
Dan Neidle, the tax analyst whose work the Washington Post referenced, pointed out the obvious error in the newspaper’s claim.
Big news in the Washington Post. Scotland's top rate of tax lost £30bn in revenue. An impressive feat when all of Scottish tax comes to about £20bn. pic.twitter.com/N3mzHSStyD
— Dan Neidle (@DanNeidle) July 29, 2026
“Big news in the Washington Post. Scotland's top rate of tax lost £30bn in revenue,” he wrote. “An impressive feat when all of Scottish tax comes to about £20bn.”
“And note they didn't just get the numbers wrong, but they state as fact findings which I'm careful to say are provisional,” he added.
Neidle’s original analysis had estimated that changing Scotland’s top rate of income tax, which since April 2024 is charged at 48% of earnings above £125,140, had cost the public purse £22 million rather than raise extra money due to behavioural changes.
However, Neidle’s hypothesis was based on assumptions and not a statement of fact, as both he and Future Economy Scotland director Laurie Macfarlane highlighted.
“While it’s useful analysis, the data doesn’t support such a definitive conclusion,” Macfarlane wrote. “In essence, the HMRC data cannot tell us why Scottish top incomes diverged. Was it tax rates, oil and gas, sectoral composition, other wage pressures, changes in the mix of taxpayers? The data can’t separate these explanations.
Many are claiming this analysis proves that Scotland’s 48% top tax rate reduced revenue. While it’s useful analysis, the data doesn’t support such a definitive conclusion. Here’s why we should treat it with some caution🧵 https://t.co/Yyph8AVMch
— Laurie Macfarlane (@L__Macfarlane) July 26, 2026
“None of this means the hypothesis is wrong. It’s entirely possible that the 48% rate reduced income. But it’s also possible that part of what we’re seeing reflects other non-tax related issues.
“[Neidle’s] analysis was very carefully caveated to acknowledge these uncertainties, but unfortunately the media reporting – and many sharing on social media – have not been so careful.”
The Washington Post was one of the outlets to present the hypothesis as an established fact, which it still does despite being forced to issue a correction about its figures.
“Basic economics lessons are often learned the hard way. That’s the case in Scotland, where the government has lost somewhere between 15 million and 30 million pounds in revenue after increasing the top tax rate to 48 percent,” the article by the paper’s editorial board now states.
The Washington Post has been plagued by controversy since Bezos – one of the richest men in the world who bought it for $250m in 2013 – said that the paper would not be allowed to publish any opinion columns which are not “in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets”.
More than 75,000 readers of the newspaper cancelled their subscriptions within 48 hours of the change, and David Shipley resigned as opinions editor.
Jeff Stein, the Washington Post’s chief economics reporter, said that Bezos was guilty of “massive encroachment” by making “clear dissenting views will not be published or tolerated”.
