Wales are approaching the stage where their next match could be Warren Gatland’s last in charge. He has at least three left, starting on Wednesday with Fiji at Oita Stadium, the venue for the quarter-final for which they appear destined, but is not minded to settle for less than five.
Wales have not been seen as potential finalists at this stage of a World Cup before, not even 1987 when they blundered into the semi-finals after playing minnows and mediocre European opposition on the way and were duly flattened by New Zealand. Now, set on a course where they would meet the All Blacks only if they made the final, there is a quiet but deep confidence in a side that all too often in past tournaments has lacked self-belief and found different ways to implode.
Gatland, who is leaving next month after nearly 12 years as head coach, has been planning for this World Cup since they were knocked out by South Africa in the 2015 quarter-final after conceding a late try. That they came so close, despite being ravaged by injuries, said everything about the character he had developed in the squad but he has since supplemented that with greater nous.
Conditioning has never been an issue under Gatland. Composure in the final quarter of a tight match, when bodies are tired and battered and minds can drift, has been – but it was Wales who had the finishing power in their previous match against Australia that allowed them to hang on for their first victory over one of the southern hemisphere’s big three in a group match.
Gatland was appointed because Wales lost against Fiji in the 2007 World Cup and, instead of going to Marseille to face South Africa in the quarter-final, found themselves heading home with their head coach, Gareth Jenkins, already fired. One of Gatland’s low points came in 2010 when Wales drew at home against Fiji and between the final whistle and his post-match media conference stripped Ryan Jones of the captaincy, a rare moment when his control looked uncertain: the next five months were taxing, but less than a year later they were one kick away from making the World Cup final.
Wales have not looked back. While New Zealand, England and South Africa are the more fancied to win the World Cup, Wales look set for a quarter-final against France if they defeat Fiji and then Uruguay on Sunday. What has been significant for Gatland so far is that with the exception of the second-row Cory Hill returning home, he has no injury concerns.
Asked who he fancied in the quarter-final, Gatland replied: “We are concentrating on our next two games. We know we are in control of our own destiny and there are benefits to winning the group in terms of turnaround time and the choice of hotels. And, psychologically, if you win all your matches and the group, you are up against a team that has lost once. The players are aware of the possibilities, but at the moment we have to focus 100% on Fiji and then Uruguay, who will be challenging.”
Wales have made two fast starts at this tournament. They led Georgia 29-0 at the interval and were 23-8 up on Australia. They did not win either of the second halves, but the All Blacks have long been into energy conservation in tournaments. Wales have the single‑mindedness of a side who are not reliant on chance or their opponents having an off-day.
“Wales will want to finish top of the pool and avoid England in the quarter-finals,” said the Fiji head coach, John McKee. “There is a lot at stake for them but we know they are a good side, the Six Nations champions, who are playing a bit more expansively here, dangerous in attack but strong in defence.”
Gatland wants another bold start to dampen the early exuberance with which Fiji normally play. “The more they feel they are getting something out of a game, the more dangerous they are,” he said.
In times past, not least 2007, Wales could be derailed by the likes of Fiji and Samoa, drawn into a loose, anarchic game which was played on their opponents’ terms.
They have one of the most exciting players this tournament in the scrum‑half Gareth Davies, a blur of motion and activity, but what marks them out now is that they recognise there is a time and a place to go for it. After their Cheika-mate against Australia, it is hard to see them being drawn into a game of draughts by the flamboyant Fijians.
