While Australia’s head coach, Michael Cheika, was highjacking his own media conference to rage against what he saw as an injustice perpetrated on one of his players, his opposite number, Warren Gatland, sitting in contented comfort a few miles to the west, reflected on how Wales were regarded as the favourites to win the effective pool decider here on Sunday.
The last time Wales were fancied to win this fixture was in 1981, when Australia were on a level with Argentina now, a good few rungs off the top. Their standing changed after the 1984 grand slam tour of Europe and after winning only four of their first 11 fixtures against Wales they have lost four of the past 31, the last of which was 10 months ago when the sides met in Cardiff.
Wales were then in the middle of a run of 14 consecutive victories, which culminated in the Six Nations grand slam, and it is a sign of how the balance in this fixture has changed that three of the four changes Cheika has made to the side that defeated Fiji last Saturday are designed to counter two of Wales’s threats: their kicking and their line speed in defence.
Dane Haylett-Petty replaces Kurtley Beale – who was exposed under the high ball by New Zealand last month – at full-back, while Will Genia and Bernard Foley, the half-backs when Australia beat Wales in the group decider at Twickenham four years ago, are restored to put the ball into space. The fourth change is enforced with Adam Ashley-Cooper taking over on the wing from Reece Hodge, whose three-match ban after being cited for a dangerous tackle against Fiji, together with the disciplinary panel’s criticism that Australia’s players seemed to be unaware of World Rugby’s high-tackle framework, had sent Cheika into a fury.
Before taking questions on his team selection, Cheika said he wanted to talk about Hodge’s hearing and for nearly eight minutes fulminated against the system. “There is a part of it which is us versus everyone else,” he said. “We know that and we are not going to let it derail us. I do not care what World Rugby are doing. If there is one bloke they are not listening to it is me, no matter what language I speak in. We are not going to let them get to us.” It sounded as if they already had.
Gatland, who announced an unchanged team from Monday’s victory over Georgia when Wales, clinical and disciplined, led 29-0 at half-time, took Cheika’s selection as a sign of respect. Australia have defeated Wales in each of the last three World Cups and have picked one of the most experienced squads in World Cup history with the 23 sharing 1,287 caps, an average of 56 each, but Wales total 935 with their captain, Alun Wyn Jones, setting a new national record of 130 on Sunday.
“I think it shows how far we have come as a team,” said Gatland. “It has not always been the case with Wales: in the past teams probably thought we did not have an attacking threat. It shows how the modern game can change from one week to the next: you have to make sure your mental attitude is right and that you bring physicality to the game. We know we are going to have to match their intensity.”
Cheika insisted Hodge should not have been cited for his challenge on Peceli Yato which left the Fiji flanker concussed, but the precedent was set last season when the Gloucester fly-half Danny Cipriani was sent off and banned for three weeks after failing to get out of the way in time as Munster’s Rory Scannell charged at him and his shoulder made contact with the centre’s head. Intent does not come into it.
While the Hodge incident appears to have been distracting for Australia, and Cheika in particular, it may also prove galvanising. There was a period during the match against Fiji when they trailed 21-12 and, at least until Yato went off, when they were overrun but they dragged their way back through the European staples of set pieces and mauls to subdue their opponents.
It was a pragmatic response Wales will be wary of. Cheika has kept the same pack, and while David Pocock struggled to convince the referee of the legitimacy of some of his turnovers – ironic given that Ben O’Keeffe comes from the land of Richie McCaw – Sunday’s official, Romain Poite, will have a more laissez-faire attitude. However, having been persuaded by the television match official not to send off the Samoa centre Rey Lee-Lo for a dangerous tackle this week, he will not be sidetracked again.
“We are very comfortable with him refereeing us,” said Gatland, no doubt recalling a night in 2013 when the Frenchman took charge of the deciding test between Australia and the Lions in Sydney and quickly took exception to the way the home side scrummaged.
Wales, though, have to rely on themselves. This is probably their most significant match under Gatland, and not because victory provides a potentially clearer path to the final, but because it would be an achievement they have not managed in a World Cup: their only previous victory over a major southern hemisphere nation in the tournament was the 1987 play-off when the Wallabies were already on the beach.
“The quality of Warren Gatland and his coaching team is second to none,” said Cheika. And Wales have their captain, a veteran of the 2007 World Cup when he played in the 32-20 defeat to the Wallabies in Cardiff. “There has been a bit of the red stuff spilled in training this week,” said Jones. “It shows the competitiveness in the squad and we will not shy away from the challenge that lies ahead.”
