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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
National
Lee Grimsditch

Warning on how Merseyside's Covid cases could change in coming weeks

A map has been generated displaying what experts predict will happen with the number of coronavirus cases across Merseyside.

There has been a small decline in the average number of daily infections recorded in the UK over the past couple of weeks.

From a recent peak of average recorded daily cases on October 23 being 47,209, infections have fallen steadily to a seven day average of 39,216 recorded on November 3.

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However, with winter pressures on the NHS starting to mount, hospital bosses are still bracing themselves for a possible surge in Covid cases.

In an attempt to predict how infections might progress over the coming weeks, scientists from Imperial College London have produced a UK map showing which areas are likely to have weekly case rates above 500 per 100,000 people in the next week.

According to the latest figures at the time of writing (published October 29), case rates in only one area of Merseyside are on the rise.

If cases start to rise again along with it hospital admissions and deaths, the Government has discussed implementing a 'Plan B' of contingency measures to take the strain off the NHS.

And while the Government has said there are no plans yet of introducing another lockdown, the extra measures that could be introduced with 'Plan B' include mandatory Covid passports, making face coverings compulsory again and advising people to work from home.

This is what the map tells you about our region:

Darker-coloured areas are more likely to see the weekly Covid-19 case rate per 100,000 people top 500 by November 14 (Imperial College London)

Liverpool

The experts think Liverpool only has only 2% chance, which is only a very slight rise, of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 people by the end of next week.

The seven day average for figures on October 29 for the city showed a total of 1,338 cases, which is down 6.6% from the previous week.

The average case rate for Liverpool on October 29 was 267.3 cases per 100,000 people.

Sefton

Sefton is predicted to have a 43% chance of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 people by the end of next week, the highest chance on Merseyside.

The seven day average for figures on October 29 for Sefton showed a total of 1,189 cases, which is up 5.5% from the previous week.

The average case rate for Sefton on October 29 was 431 cases per 100,000 people.

Keep up to date with coronavirus cases in your area by entering your postcode below

Knowsley

Knowsley is predicted to have a 12% chance of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 people by the end of next week.

The seven day average for figures on October 29 for Knowsley showed a total of 569 cases, which was down 17.3% from the previous week.

The average case rate for Knowsley on October 29 was 373.2 cases per 100,000 people.

St Helens

St Helens is predicted to have a 30% chance of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 people by the end of next week.

The seven day average for figures on October 29 for the town showed a total of 895 cases, which was down 8.5% from the previous week.

The average case rate for St Helens on October 29 wasn't far off the 500 cases per 100,000 people with a figure of 494.2.

Wirral

Wirral is predicted to have a 15% chance of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 people by the end of next week.

The seven day average for figures on October 29 for Wirral showed a total of 1,212 cases, which was down 3.8% from the previous week.

The average case rate for Wirral on October 29 was 373.7 cases per 100,000 people.

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