One swallow certainly does not a summer make — particularly when there is still frost on the ground as there was this morning.
But for economy watchers starved of good news for so long the sliver of hope from Primark that we report today brings a warm glow. According to George Weston, chief executive of the retailer’s owner ABF, there is a decent chance that its shop prices can now stabilise following sustained falls in energy costs and freight shipping rates.
Supermarket analysts Kantar also provided a further flutter of optimism with news that food inflation dipped — albeit marginally — from 17.5% to 17.3%. There is still a long way to go and in Churchillian terms this may only be the end of the beginning.
Santander provided a salutary reminder of where interest rates could be heading if price rises are not brought under control, with its bleak projection of 6% peak interest rates in a scenario in which inflation persists at current levels.
Hopefully it will not come to that and certainly the markets are not pencilling in so many additional hikes.
But the economy remains stretched in so many directions and the elusive growth that takes a lot of the pain away is still as hard to conjure up as ever. UK plc has had a quartet of huge shocks to deal with — the financial crisis, Brexit, the pandemic and the energy crisis — so no wonder it is looking ragged.
We must just hope that there is not a fifth on the way over the next few years
