MIAMI — Nine major retailers open their books this week, and for Latino families the headline earnings-per-share figure won't be the number that matters most. The more useful read sits in same-store sales trends, guidance language about "value-seeking" shoppers, and executive commentary on who is — and isn't — still filling a cart.
The Earnings Calendar Driving the Week
The reporting run starts Tuesday, when Home Depot and luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers post results — Toll Brothers after markets close, with its earnings call the next morning. Wednesday brings three chains with heavy reach into working- and middle-class households: Target, Lowe's and off-price giant TJX, parent of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. Walmart closes the week Thursday alongside Deere and Alibaba, wrapping up one of the last major windows into U.S. consumer health this earnings season.
Wall Street will trade on these numbers. For Latino households, who make up an outsized share of foot traffic at discount chains, the more telling signal is what executives say about who is trading down and why.
Wednesday's trio doubles as a small experiment in reading consumer stress. Wall Street expects TJX — whose T.J. Maxx and Marshalls banners have long absorbed shoppers priced out of pricier department stores — to post revenue growth near 5% for the quarter. Target's outlook is softer: Bank of America is modeling comparable-sales growth of roughly 2.5% for the chain, though not every analyst agrees — Wolfe Research is calling for closer to 3% and rates the stock a buy, while BofA keeps an underperform rating.
A Buying-Power Story With a Catch
On paper, Hispanic households look like an economic engine that shouldn't be slowing. Their combined spending power is approaching $2.7 trillion, and while Hispanic households make up under 15% of all U.S. households, they account for about 15% of total consumer spending, according to NielsenIQ. That spending has historically grown faster than the national average.
The catch is in the details. The Commerce Department's July retail sales report showed the steepest monthly drop since May 2025 — a 0.6% pullback after months of stronger, tax-refund-boosted spending. The softness was concentrated in online retail, which fell 2.2% as spending that had been pulled into June's Prime Day-style promotions faded, and in auto sales, down 1.8%; gasoline stations also slipped. Grocery spending, notably, barely moved — government data puts it down just 0.1% — even though EY-Parthenon economists flagged rising selectiveness in everyday categories, including groceries, as a sign that households are turning more value-conscious as the year's second half opens.
Walmart's own numbers offer a preview of what Thursday's report might show. When the retailer posted first-quarter results in May, executives pointed to rising fuel costs as a pressure point, noting that the average gallons customers pump per fill-up at its stations had dropped below 10 for the first time since 2022 — a small but telling proxy for tightening budgets. Months earlier, in his first earnings call as CEO, John Furner had drawn a sharper line: the majority of the chain's market-share gains were coming from households earning more than $100,000, while shoppers earning under $50,000 had wallets that were, in his words, "stretched," with some living paycheck to paycheck.
That divide tracks a pattern researchers have found specifically among Latino consumers. A national pulse survey found only 36% of Latino respondents described themselves as financially comfortable in March 2026, barely moved from 35% three months earlier — a slower recovery than other groups tracked in the same study.
The Layer Wall Street Rarely Measures
A second pressure specific to Latino households won't show up in any earnings-per-share figure: anxiety tied to immigration enforcement. Several consumer-goods companies have flagged a pullback among Hispanic shoppers over the past several quarters. Beer maker Constellation Brands, whose Modelo and Corona brands draw roughly half their U.S. drinkers from Hispanic consumers, has referenced the trend repeatedly on earnings calls dating back more than a year — though the company's leadership has since changed. Bill Newlands, who led those calls as CEO through this spring, told investors in April that consumer reaction remained volatile and that research still showed caution among Hispanic buyers; he moved into an advisory role when Nicholas Fink took over as CEO in mid-April. By the time Fink's team reported its first full quarter in July, the picture had shifted somewhat: executives said the sales gap in Hispanic-heavy markets had begun narrowing, even as cost-of-living pressure and immigration-related anxiety continued to weigh on the category. Not every retailer has read the trend the same way — Walmart's prior CEO, Doug McMillon, called the immigration effect on his stores a "nonevent for us so far" — though that comment is now roughly a year and a half old and predates both a change in Walmart's top office and the more recent Constellation data, making it worth watching for on Thursday's call rather than treating as still-current.
A UCLA-affiliated research effort has tried to quantify the effect at the neighborhood level. The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute's own tracking found roughly $3.16 million in lost revenue near nine Los Angeles County enforcement sites within two weeks of raids, and the institute cites a separate independent analysis estimating a 20% to 25% drop in spending — worth an estimated $280 million in a single month — across immigrant-heavy retail corridors countywide. Institute director Amada Armenta put it starkly: "Latino businesses have not recovered."
What South Florida Should Watch
Locally, the stakes are concrete. Doral, home to one of the country's largest Venezuelan and Colombian communities, and Hialeah, anchored by generations of Cuban and Central American families, both lean heavily on Walmart Supercenters for everyday groceries, alongside the Home Depot and Lowe's lots that supply South Florida's Latino-heavy construction workforce. Those neighborhoods sit at the intersection of every trend in this week's reports: a soft Toll Brothers print could hint at slower construction hiring; a cautious Home Depot outlook could ripple into contractor paychecks; and Walmart's Thursday commentary on lower-income households will be the clearest single signal of how the diaspora's budget actually held up this summer, regardless of what the stock does that afternoon.
Hispanic joblessness, meanwhile, offered a rare bright spot: the unemployment rate for Hispanic workers fell to 4.6% in July from 5.2% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — though that improvement came alongside a broader dip in national labor-force participation, a sign some workers may simply have stopped looking for jobs.
