After England’s 39-10 win against Argentina, coach Eddie Jones touched on an issue which will have important implications for his old team, the Wallabies, as they prepare for the knockout stage of the Rugby World Cup.
Jones’ off-the-cuff comment did not pertain to the ill-discipline that has bedevilled Australia, but to the vagaries of the draw. Asked to explain England’s slow start against Argentina, Jones attributed it to rustiness after playing two easy games against Tonga and the USA in Pool C.
This has direct relevance to the Wallabies, who will have played two minnows in a row before their quarter-final. The Wallabies defeated Uruguay 45-10 at Oita Stadium on Saturday and will play their final Pool D game against Georgia on Friday. If Jones’ theory is correct, the Wallabies will be underdone when they face the pressure-cooker situation of sudden-death rugby.
The last thing the Wallabies need is another contributing factor towards a slow start, having begun poorly in all of their games so far against Fiji, Wales and Uruguay.
It raises a strong argument that the Wallabies should field their best team against Georgia to help prepare for the quarter-final. The Wallabies selectors made 12 changes to the team that lost 29-25 to Wales for the Uruguay game to rest key players and give others game time.
The selectors may be tempted to keep certain players in cotton wool against Georgia, but that will not help them to get ready for the quarter-final. Sure, the Wallabies will not want to see any of their top players injured against Georgia, but the risk of injury is just as great at training. If key Wallabies are rested against Georgia, they will have received either no game time, or very little, since the loss to Wales, diminishing their match fitness.
The All Blacks fielded a near full-strength team against Tonga in their World Cup warm-up to prepare for the opening game of the tournament against South Africa. The Wallabies should treat Georgia the same way, a full dress rehearsal for the quarter-final, honing their combinations and skills for the sudden-death game.
The question is, what is the Wallabies best team? Do the selectors even know? The tight-five of Scott Sio, Tolu Latu, Allan Alaalatoa, Rory Arnold and Izack Rodda is pretty much settled as it has been the Wallabies’ best-performing area so far in the tournament.
But positions from number six to number 10 remain something of a mystery. We can be almost certain the “Pooper” back-row combination of David Pocock and Michael Hooper will start the quarter-final, despite calls for a big blindside flanker. It has been duly noted that Pocock, regarded as the best breakdown forward in world rugby, has not won any turnovers in this tournament.
That is largely because of a key law change at the breakdown that favours the team in possession at the tackle contest, making it much more difficult to pilfer the ball. But the real strength of the “Pooper” combination is not so much playing hard on the ball, but their solid defence. Without Pocock and Hooper on the field at the same time, the Wallabies are very vulnerable defensively.
As long as the Wallabies have a big number eight such as Isi Naisararni, they should be able to get away with having two shorter flankers. But Naisarani will face a strong challenge from Jack Dempsey for the gold number eight jersey. Dempsey showed brilliant footwork and physicality against Uruguay. If he can’t dislodge Naisarani, he might beat blindside flanker Lukhan SalaKaia-Loto for a spot on the bench.
But do the Wallabies want to deny themselves the option of adding size to the back-row should they need it? The pressing question is who will start in the halves? Nic White and Christian Lealiifano or Will Genia and Bernard Foley?
Before the World Cup coach Michael Cheika hinted he would adopt a horses-for-courses approach and has flipped the halves combination in each game. It is Genia and Foley’s turn to start against Georgia, but are they the best combination? Probably not. White and Lealiifano should start against Georgia, unless Cheika is keeping Matt Toomua up his sleeve as a number 10 option.
The mid-field combination of Samu Kerevi and James O’Connor as well as left winger Marika Koroibete seem the only certain starters in the backline. At fullback, the selectors must decide between the safety-first option of Dane Haylett-Petty and the x-factor of Kurtley Beale. At this stage it looks as if Beale will continue his role as a super-sub.
And, of course, the arrival of teen sensation Jordan Petaia has given the selectors something to mull over in relation to the right wing. Petaia, 19, made a wonderful debut against Uruguay, scoring a try, but is he ready to start in the quarter-final ahead of the likes of Reece Hodge, Adam Ashley-Cooper or even Haylett-Petty? There is an old truism in rugby that if you are good enough, you are old enough, and Petaia certainly looked good enough, albeit he was only playing against Uruguay.
Whoever the selectors decide to go with for Georgia, they need to pick the best possible Wallabies team to prepare for the quarter-final. Eddie Jones unwittingly tipped the Wallabies into the danger of the draw and they would be wise to listen to the former Australia mentor.
