Many consider the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw announced in Kyoto on Wednesday night is a “dream run” for Australia. Celebratory emojis blew up on social media, but the hullabaloo is premature. There is every chance the Wallabies campaign could end in an ignominious quarter-final defeat.
In 2015, the Wallabies were thrown into the so-called pool of death alongside England, Wales and an extremely competitive Fijian outfit. Australia not only survived that baptism of fire but went all the way to the final. It was an overachievement, in no small part due to the motivational powers of the then newly-appointed Wallabies coach Michael Cheika.
On the face of it, the Wallabies have been dealt a much-improved hand this time around. Australia’s 2019 pool opponents include Wales (who the Wallabies have beaten a dozen times on the bounce), Georgia, an Oceania team (probably Fiji) and an Americas qualifier. The Australian reaction – in stark contrast to England supporters whose team arguably find themselves in another pool of death with France and Argentina – has been one of jubilation.
In Japan for the draw, Cheika advised supporters to keep a lid on expectations, and for good reason. In 2015, the draw opened for the Wallabies with a quarter-final against Scotland and a semi-final against Argentina. It won’t play out like that again in Japan. Finish top of Pool D and Australia play the runner up of Pool C in the quarters, which could be any of England, France and Argentina. Of the three, Australia’s best bet for a win – but hardly a sure thing – would be the Pumas. Eddie Jones’ England and a much-improved France under Guy Novès would both fancy their chances of sending the Wallabies packing at the first sudden-death hurdle.
Speaking to journalists after the announcement, Cheika fired off a flurry of clichés about no games being easy, it’s all about the Wallabies taking one game at a time and so on. He wasn’t being glib at all – this is how Cheika coaches, all in for each game as it comes, the chips fall as they may.
And while Cheika isn’t talking about it just yet, he knows even the most favourable draw imaginable won’t assist the Wallabies until he addresses the team’s biggest pressing issue leading into the 2019 tournament: the starting fly-half for the World Cup, and the backup No10.
No team can win a World Cup without a world class fly-half. The All Blacks needed four fly-halves to win the 2011 World Cup. While Wallabies incumbent Bernard Foley is up there with the best, he’s one head knock away from a lengthy spell on the sidelines. In fact, Foley’s long-term health would be a major concern for the Wallabies medical team. His recurring symptoms are troubling. A lay-off à la Charlie Ngatai wouldn’t surprise. It’s even possible Cheika could act pre-emptively and keep Foley out of action for the June internationals and the TriNations/Bledisloe Cup fixtures altogether.
Kurtley Beale will be back from England in time for the All Blacks so Cheika will have another starting fly-half option. It would have to be a short-term fix though as Beale’s greatest threat is at 12 where he can unlock the attacking potential of Israel Folau, Samu Kerevi and possibly Henry Speight.
And despite this year’s poor showing to date by Australian Super Rugby teams against New Zealand opposition (0-17), a cleverly selected Wallabies side with Beale as a stop gap 10 can be competitive against the All Blacks later in the year. There is sufficient talent in Australia to field a strong national team (the problem has been that talent is too widely dispersed across five teams).
Beale is a lock-in at 12 for Japan. Which brings us back to Cheika’s plans at 10. Quade Cooper isn’t the answer. That much is clear. Foley may or may not be in good health come 2019. And there’s nobody else who genuinely stands out. Identifying and developing two credible fly-half options in the next two and a bit years is Cheika’s highest priority. If he fails in this task, a favourable draw – if that’s what it is – will amount to nought. The Wallabies will be sitting ducks.
