With one week still to go, Wall Street is staging a remarkable break from its long-standing September curse.
Major indexes have not only been closing higher every week of the month so far, but also posting the most substantial gains for September since 2010.
Wall Street Soars Against Seasonal Odds
Historically, September has been the worst month for U.S. stocks. Over the past 20, 30 and 40 years, the S&P 500 has averaged respective losses of 0.98%, 0.96% and 1.04% in September. Tech stocks have fared even worse, averaging a 2.2% decline over the last 25 years.
But as of Sept. 22, the S&P 500—tracked by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO)—is up 3.6% for the month, heading toward its best September in 15 years. The last comparable gain came in 2010, when the index jumped 8.76%. Before that, it was 1997, with a 6.22% increase.
The Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), is up 5.5% month-to-date, also notching its strongest September since 2010. Meanwhile, the broader tech sector is rallying even harder: the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) is up 7.5%, its second-best September ever since its 1999 inception.
| September | S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 | XLK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 8.76% | 13.05% | 11.26% |
| 2011 | -7.18% | -4.54% | -3.44% |
| 2012 | 2.42% | 0.97% | 1.10% |
| 2013 | 2.97% | 4.70% | 2.04% |
| 2014 | -1.55% | -0.81% | -0.94% |
| 2015 | -2.64% | -2.19% | -1.81% |
| 2016 | -0.12% | 1.68% | 1.68% |
| 2017 | 1.93% | 2.19% | 0.46% |
| 2018 | 0.43% | -0.16% | -0.36% |
| 2019 | 1.72% | -0.35% | 1.26% |
| 2020 | -3.92% | 0.76% | -5.54% |
| 2021 | -4.76% | -5.72% | -6.01% |
| 2022 | -9.34% | -5.73% | -12.18% |
| 2023 | -4.87% | -10.60% | -6.68% |
| 2024 | 2.02% | -5.07% | 2.46% |
| 2025 (through Sept. 22) | 3.60% | 5.70% | 7.55% |
Why Are Stocks Defying The September Curse?
The setup has been almost perfect. Rate cut expectations, strong earnings, a resilient economy, and tame inflation have created a sweet spot for stocks.
According to LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist, technical momentum has been a driving force.
"When the S&P 500 enters the month above its 200-day moving average (as it did this year), the average return rises to 1.3%, with 60% of instances finishing higher," Turnquist said.
Rick Gardner, chief investment officer at RGA Investments, credited a cocktail of macroeconomic and policy tailwinds.
"Stocks have been bucking the historical September weakness so far, thanks to an extremely favorable setup with Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong earnings, solid economic growth and muted inflation," Gardner said.
But Gardner also noted that higher stock prices are making it harder to find good entry points.
"The stock market’s strength is making it tougher to put new money to work, as valuations are rising, which makes it all the more important for investors to be selective and bottoms up," he said.
Which Stocks Are Leading September's Surge?
The standout performers include a mix of big tech and semiconductors, with some posting their best months in decades:
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is up 9.7% in September, heading for its best performance in this month since 2010. Historically, the stock has averaged a 2.6% drop in September over the past 30 years.
- Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) has surged 42% this month, its best overall monthly performance since December 1999.
- Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is up 40%, eyeing its best month since December 2009 and its strongest September on record.
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has gained 19%, its best month since July 2015 and strongest September since 2004.
- Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is up a staggering 29.7%, its best overall month since November 2004 and best-ever September.
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