There are a few preconditions that come with a plan to keep a game nice and tight, to take no risks and grind the opposition down. The first is that the forwards must establish control. It is never an absolute given that Wales can do that.
No matter, their forwards had to shape up and dominate. Into the corner Dan Biggar sent them, kicking for lineouts rather than for the posts. And after just six minutes they scored a try, the forwards winning the lineout, driving and setting up the ruck from which Gareth Davies dummied and dived. The forwards must be going pretty well if the scrum-half at their heels scores four tries in three games.
On the other hand, there was the matter of the scrum. Fiji shoved Wales at the first, won a penalty at the second and Ben Volavola reduced the gap. Wales conceded another penalty before half-time. The scrummage may not be as important as it once was because teams can never suffer a real battering there – the old charge into engagement is anathema – and nobody has either the interest or the patience to let the front five work themselves to a standstill with repeated resets.
And yet the scrum still has its role. If Wales were trying to reduce the threat of Fiji as runners they needed to teach them a lesson at the scrum. It did not happen. Quite the opposite. Fiji were the dominant scrummagers throughout, a sentence rarely written in their rugby history.
The second problem for Wales in this attempt to govern by collective will and muscle is that it runs counter to the instincts of Welsh rugby players. They, like Fiji, like to pass the ball. The trouble was that they passed it ill-advisedly too often. Sometimes – it must be said – it worked beautifully, like the time Biggar and Gethin Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones gave impetus through passes to the movement that led to Scott Baldwin’s try.
The message from Warren Gatland in the preamble to the World Cup was that if the players thought there was a serious opportunity to attack through the hand – from anywhere – then give it a go. The Biggar-Jenkins-AWJ chain was the God-given, Welsh sleight of hand at its very best.
And how dangerously intoxicating such freedom of expression can be. George North tried a backhanded flip out of contact, an embellishment that led to trouble. The other observation by Gatland is that if the miracle ball is not on, then do not under any circumstances give in to it.
If in doubt, hang on to the ball and go to ground. It wasn’t just North; the venerable Jenkins slung a loose pass, too. And in the second half, when a measure of Welsh control really, really would have come in handy as Fiji gave their all in the chase, AWJ of all people lost the ball in contact.
And James Hook, to whom the phrase “stick to the game plan” has never made much sense, lost the ball too. A game of tight control cannot cope with a scrum in retreat and the ball bobbling into the hands of the best opportunists in the game.
Given the obstacles, Wales did well to scramble to a victory, but hardly looked like the team ranked second in the world. Until the ranking computer is given a new programme or chip, or is dropped on the floor, there is little sense in giving any credence to what it delivers on the matter of the world order of rugby.
Still, to know that anything programmed can be undone in a flash should serve as reassurance that this World Cup business remains a very human affair. Reality, as Stuart Lancaster is being reminded by all and sundry, can be cruelly distant from the master plan.
Wales were saved by players who could dodge out of trouble. Matthew Morgan is so small that he is a priceless asset, a pointer to the future when players can duck or burrow their way out of the grasp of giants. Safety is going to send rugby back down in height and tomorrow could be Morgan’s, a full-back who brought an impish light relief to the storm in front of him.
Even when he looked up in his own 22 and saw only white shirts bearing down on his weird grey one – surely this was not the day to take a punt on commercial sales of the back-up kit – he took the risk and ran. And won himself a penalty.
Admittedly, when the referee, John Lacey, who is never keen to let play develop at the breakdown, blew, it was touch and go whether he would penalise grey or white. It went the way of the cheeky youngster.
Not cheeky at all was Biggar, who kicked beautifully again. Funnily enough, Biggar was not at his best chasing his own punts – one of his specialities – but this was a game that defied anything prescribed.
Instead of rousing the crowd with his catching of his own up-and-unders, Biggar was Mr Sensible and calmly landed his place kicks.
Ben Volavola, an exciting, cheeky outside half in his own right, could not match Biggar for precision.
Wales won then, by being authoritative – but not in the places they had assumed to make their mark. Best laid plans and all that. The only one now is to enjoy nine days of rest before Australia.
