Here's how we think Wales v South Africa will pan out.
Mark Orders — South Africa’s bludgeon to prove decisive against depleted Wales
Wales should know what’s coming their way this weekend.
Everyone should know what’s coming the way of Wayne Pivac’s side.
If we all come back in a thousand years from now, and climate change hasn’t done for the planet, South Africa will still be trying to bully sides up front and playing a pressure game behind, forcing mistakes with high kicks and hitting hard in the tackle.
The bludgeon is their weapon of choice.
That said, in the likes of Makazole Mampimpi and Damian Willemse they have the rapier if required.
READ MORE: For all the latest news, views and analysis head to our rugby section
Wales start with just two members of the run-on pack that toughed it out so creditably in the World Cup semi-final of 2019. Tomas Francis and Aaron Wainwright survive, with Wyn Jones on the bench this weekend. Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric are all injured, while Jake Ball has decamped to foreign climes. By contrast, field Bongi Mbonami, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager Siya Kolisi and Duane Vermeulen, tough nuts all, from their last-four starting eight in Yokohama.
The challenge for Wales will be to summon the grit and muscle to cope up front and not to be shoved around. Having Wyn Jones on the bench might help, but it will still need a supreme effort from the Welsh pack.
Wales also have to be willing to move the ball behind ask and different questions of the Boks.
Pivac will learn a lot about certain Welsh players on days like these.
Expect South Africa to have too much power in the forwards and authority behind.
Wales 16-36 South Africa
Ben James: Play telegraphed like last week and it could get ugly
South Africa have done a brilliant job of talking up the fact that they haven't won in Cardiff since 2013.
Listen to Jacques Nienaber and his coaching staff and you could be fooled for a second that it is his side, not Wayne Pivac's, that are the underdogs this weekend.
The last actual visit though was 2018 when the work of Ellis Jenkins in his last Wales game up until now saw the Boks soundly beaten. Since then, they've won a World Cup and sent the Lions packing in the summer.
So yes, it's Wales, not South Africa, that are the underdogs. Not that anyone really needed telling.
Wales are depleted. This autumn that should have seen the Six Nations title-winners go toe-to-toe with the southern hemisphere's best with a full complement is starting to feel a little like last year's Autumn Nations Cup, when new, green faces came in and out of the side at a rate of knots.
The Lions did briefly show how to play around and manipulate South Africa's aggressive 13-led blitz when Finn Russell opened things up in a spell of rugby that saw Warren Gatland's side spurn enough chances to win the series there and then.
Wales have already admitted that they'll look to play more rugby than the Lions but they'll need to execute better than last week when their first-half attacking play was too telegraphed.
There were so many hospital passes that Bill McLaren's favourite 'ward 4' would have been oversubscribed by 7.30pm on Saturday night.
There's no Faf de Klerk this week to roam about wildly but TJ Perenara showed that just a simple spot-blitz from a scrum-half combined with a 13 reading the play well was enough to shut Wales down more often than not.
For Anton Lienert-Brown, read Lukhanyo Am this week. Rhys Priestland countered the All Blacks blitz in a way Gareth Anscombe didn't off the bench last weekend - hopefully Wales have learned their lesson there.
Add in the failing lineout, a scrambled kick-chase and the Boks likely to exceed the physicality offered by the All Blacks last Saturday - which was still more than enough for Wales - and it's just hard to see how Wales can come out on top without some massive improvements.
Wales 13-29 South Africa
Simon Thomas: Wales to play, but 'Boks power to tell
One thing we can predict with a fair degree of certainty is Wales will look to play, certainly more than the Lions did against South Africa in the summer.
Wayne Pivac has made that clear in his pre-match comments and it’s really the only way to go looking at the two teams.
Getting embroiled in an arm wrestle with the bulky ‘Boks is not the way to go, particularly in the enforced absence of some of Wales’ more physical, gnarly forwards.
With two opensides in the back row, it will be all about targeting the breakdown, looking for turnovers and delivering quick ball to utilise the potent strike runners out wide.
The aim will surely be to get the ball away from wherever the visiting beasts are lurking and to play around them rather than through them.
But Wales will also have to do the basics well.
That means kicking accurately for territory when in precarious areas of the field and following it up with a concerted chase.
And, of course, the set-piece has to function to provide some kind of platform.
As such, much hinges on the young, but broad shoulders of Rhys Carre and on the throwing arm of Ryan Elias.
Not since the days of Derwyn Jones and Gareth Llewellyn or Luke Charteris and Ian Evans have Wales had two such twin towers to aim for as the 6ft 8ins Will Rowlands and 6ft 9ins Adam Beard.
The onus is now on Elias to hit them, particularly with Lood de Jager having stolen more lineouts than any other player during The Rugby Championship.
If the set-piece holds up in the face of 'Boks pressure and the attacking play is precise, then there may be a chance.
But you just feel the power and sustained brutal impacts from the opposition will tell in the end, with their bomb squad bench having a big role to play.
Wales 21-28 South Africa
To get the latest rugby news delivered straight to your inbox, you can sign up for our Welsh rugby newsletter.
