We have a special game. People from rugby from all around the globe are enjoying each other’s company. The World Cup is connecting people and there was the sight this week of Scottish and Japanese supporters enjoying a wee dram prior to the game at Kingsholm. It makes you proud of the sport, even if the entente may not be so cordiale when England meet Wales at Twickenham on Saturday.
It is one of the biggest fixtures in the game regardless but, with the winner taking a huge step to a place in the quarter-finals, this encounter will be up a level. Not for nothing does the Wales captain, Sam Warburton, say it will be the biggest game of his career and he speaks as someone who has captained the Lions and led his country to a grand slam and in a World Cup semi-final. It is massive.
Stuart Lancaster is certainly rolling the dice with his selections for such a critical game. Sure, England’s most potent attacking back, Jonathan Joseph, has been ruled out by injury but to replace the inventive George Ford with Owen Farrell and to opt for a midfield pairing of Sam Burgess and Brad Barritt, who have not played together before, means they are without their two outstanding backs from this year’s Six Nations.
England’s gameplan will be different. They are going back to the future with a power and kicking strategy but maybe that’s the way to get a result against Wales. If some will argue that it is risky to change your tactical approach during a tournament, I believe you have to tailor your approach to reflect the defensive weaknesses of your opponents on the day.
Lancaster’s hand has been forced in part by the injury to Joseph, which has robbed him of his greatest attacking threat in midfield. He has gone for his outside-half with the best kicking game, Farrell, and in Burgess and Barritt he has two ball-carriers who will go forward and get over the advantage line. Farrell is also a high percentage goal-kicker and what promises to be a tight contest may be decided by who kicks their penalties; Wales are without the prolific Leigh Halfpenny.
The risk for England is Burgess’s lack of experience in rugby union and not just at international level. This will be only his second start for England on top of his nine in the centre for Bath before they converted him into a back-rower. Will he be able to read Wales’s attacking plays? I am sure Warren Gatland and his team have been working on ways of exposing him in defence and isolating him through creating uncertainty, something that may have influenced the selection of Farrell, a better defender than Ford.
To do that, they will need to establish dominance in the front five and that is where I think the game will be won and lost. You can only play if you have a platform and England’s scrum in the last month has not been as secure as it was in the Six Nations. It is a part of the game that has had a significant bearing on the result in the last three meetings between England and Wales and, with a French referee in charge, that is set to be the case again.
Wales will arrive at Twickenham decimated by injuries. To lose world‑class players in Halfpenny and Jonathan Davies is cruel, along with the increasingly impressive scrum-half Rhys Webb. It means they will only have three of their back division in the Six Nations in position – Liam Williams has moved from the wing to full-back – and they lack specialist cover at loosehead prop on the bench.
Perversely, I think it may help them. Gatland will use the losses to galvanise his troops, stressing how everyone will see them as underdogs playing away to the tournament hosts. He will make sure they are right mentally and while there was a time when Wales could not win at Twickenham, they have done so twice since he has been in charge and the place will hold no fears for them. “Bring it on,” will be the cry.
It will be a game of immense physicality and one of the joys of rugby union is that it remains a game for all shapes, sizes and styles. Japan were exhilarating against South Africa in their opening game and the euphoria they generated did not evaporate as they ran out of legs in the second half against Scotland.
Their attacking game is all about going forward, delivering quick ball at the breakdown through superb presentation by the carrier, support players making decisions and cleaning low and past the ball, a flat pass to the first receiver and skills to function on the gain line. They have a gang mentality in defence and they play classic rugby, superb for a young coach to learn from. They did not enjoy the bounce of the ball with the referee at Gloucester and I hope that is not what the minnows can expect this tournament, but tribute should also be paid to Scotland, who were impressive in the second 40 minutes.
Japan do it their way, but it will be different at Twickenham. Defeat will not be on the menu for either of the two old rivals and it will be the biggest battle of the tournament so far. Who will blink first?
