The R rate in Wales has increased significantly with cases increasing by as much as 5% a day.
On Friday, October 2, First Minister Mark Drakeford said the R rate in Wales was between 1.1 and 1.5. This was up from between 0.5 and 1 three weeks ago.
The latest data from the Welsh Government's Technical Advisory Cell (TAG) suggests that it has now risen to between 1.3 and 1.6.
Over the summer it was very hard for experts and modellers to come up with an exact R number because there was so little of the virus in circulation.
However it has now reached a point where the virus is so widespread that experts are now able to say with more certainty what the R rate is in Wales.
The TAG advice said: "While there may still be high degrees of variability (for example, in a localised outbreak), there is now more confidence in the reliability of the R and growth rate estimates compared to two to three months ago."
They also said that "availability of testing may also be a constraint" on calculating the R rate amidst a UK wide shortage of tests due to backlogs in the UK Government funded (but privately run) Lighthouse Labs.
The R number represents the amount of people each person with Covid-19 is infecting with the virus.
If that number goes above one the number of people becoming infected with the virus will grow exponentially but as long as it remains below one, the number of people infected with the virus will continue to fall.
There is some good news, in their summary of their advice TAG said that "some data streams indicate potential slowing in the growth rate of the epidemic" but added that "it remains likely that infection incidence is growing overall in Wales".
They said that studies at the end of September suggest that around one in every 500 people in Wales has coronavirus.
What about the rest of the UK?
For England the R number is between 1.3 and 1.6 which is an increase from between 1.2 and 1.5 three weeks ago.
The Department of Health in England publishes the R number for every region once a week.
- East of England - 1.2 to 1.3 (up from 1.1 to 1.3 last week)
- London - 1.2 to 1.6 (up from 1.2 to 1.5 last week)
- Midlands - 1.2 to 1.5 (same as last week)
- North East and Yorkshire - 1.2 to 1.6 (up from 1.2 to 1.5 last week)
- North West - 1.2 to 1.5 (same as last week)
- South East - 1.1 to 1.4 (up from 1 to 1.3 last week)
- South West - 1.1 to 1.4 (same as last week)
Scotland has a current range is between 1.3 and 1.7, which is up from 1.2 and 1.6.
Northern Ireland 's rate has remained stable at a range of between 0.5 and 0.9.
