Two teams face each other at Murrayfield on Sunday on the back of opening round defeats, but there is a marked difference in their psyches even if the need for victory is strong in both. Scotland have revived under Vern Cotter, but the Six Nations will properly gauge their improvement while Wales have had some spiky training sessions this week after the unexpected reverse to England.
On paper, it is an away banker: Wales have not lost to Scotland since 2007 and are looking to achieve a fourth successive win north of the border for the first time, and Scotland have won only three of their last 20 matches in the Six Nations (two against Italy) and since finishing third in 2006, their record is eight victories, one draw and 32 defeats. They took much out of last weekend’s defeat to France in Paris, scoring the only try of the match, but they failed to beat a side who have finished in the bottom half of the past three championships.
Scotland have broadened their approach under Cotter with Stuart Hogg profiting from the resulting width. Just as England’s half-backs were instrumental to the win over Wales at the Millennium Stadium, so Finn Russell and Greig Laidlaw will be pivotal on Sunday, needing to find ways of creating holes in a blanket line of defence that rushes up on the ball-carrier. Last season, the Scots tended to have pods of forwards playing off nine and making little ground, but now they play more through Russell and have the experienced Sean Lamont back on the wing.
Like England, Scotland have the capacity to disrupt Wales’s lineout but it will be at the scrum and the breakdown, the areas where the interpretations of the referee can sway the course of the match, where the home pack will need to improve on their performance in this fixture two years ago. The Welsh held sway then, but there will be an element of the unknown for both sides with the former Saracens outside-half Glen Jackson taking charge of his first Six Nations match, although he controlled Scotland’s defeat in South Africa last June.
Both sides have been forced to make changes at tight-head prop. Geoff Cross, who made an ignominious international debut against Wales in 2009 when he received a yellow card as he was being loaded on to a stretcher for taking out Lee Byrne in the air and knocking himself out, has replaced Euan Murray, who does not play on Sundays for religious reasons, while Wales are without Samson Lee, who failed the concussion protocol on Thursday after suffering a head injury against England. With Adam Jones having retired from international rugby, Aaron Jarvis takes over.
It is on the other side of the scrum where Wales have had problems in the past year with some referees unimpressed with Gethin Jenkins’s scrummaging technique. Their failure to get on the right side of Jérôme Garcès last Friday was a significant factor behind their collapse in the second half.
Wales have talked this week about the way they recovered from an opening-day defeat to Ireland two years ago to go on and win the title. The difference now is that two years ago Wales staged a second-half recovery against Ireland and took that momentum into their next match, against France in Paris. This time they have to rally from a failure to score a point or muster an attack in the second period, and while their head coach Warren Gatland did not say a word to his players last Friday night, he has uttered a few this week and training has been combative.
Wales failed to react when England changed their approach and took control of the match. “We lost the game but not our belief,” said the outside-half Dan Biggar. “Some harsh but fair words have been spoken this week and the character in this squad is second to none. We fully believe we can turn things around.”
Wales kicked the ball for the sake of it too often last week and they will look to keep it in hand more, using their strike runners in midfield and out wide. One of their biggest regrets against England was a slowness of players to get back on their feet after making a tackle and they will start the game with a ferocity they will need to blend with nous.
Scotland defended purposefully against France. Russell has added to their ballast behind and in the back row, Blair Cowan combined defence with a ball-carrying threat. Their last match pre-Cotter was against Wales in Cardiff at the end of the 2014 Six Nations when Hogg was sent off and 51 points were shipped.
“Wales were swan-diving over the line and singing to each other at the post-match meal,” said the Scotland flanker Alasdair Strokosch. “It was a big insult, a big slap in the face. We just folded and it’s not something that’s going to happen again.” Both teams are armed with motivation, but Wales’s experience and record against sides they are expected to beat give them the edge.
