Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Richard Adams

Waiting on Ohio - again

Crucial election? Long lines at the polls? Running out of ballot papers? Court orders to keep open the voting stations? Chaos generally? It must be Ohio.

So, with half of precincts reporting in Ohio, Clinton appears to have a comfortable lead of 57% to Barack Obama's 41%. But AP and the US news networks haven't yet called the state's winner - why not?

The answer is that the rural and small town precincts have already been counted and what the pollsters are waiting on are the returns from the dense urban centres of Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus - with their substantial sections of black voters. So depending on turnout in those cities, the forecasters want to see on how they vote.

Most importantly they are looking for the vote from Cuyahoga County, which is one-third black, and also heavily upscale white, the key blocs of support that Obama has been attracting. If he can carry Cuyahoga heavily then he may yet challenge for the state (as Sherrod Brown did in his 2006 Senate race for the Democrats).

Elsewhere the exit polls and the votes counted show big leads for Clinton, in the white, rural south-east of Ohio, and the rust-belt counties.

So: Clinton should win Ohio, but a spectacular turnout in Cuyahoga and a large black vote in the big cities could keep this close for a while yet. But Clinton should still win - the margin is too big. Isn't it?

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.