Jon Henley in Paris
With three days to go before France's referendum on the European constitution, you can tell that the Yes camp has seen the writing on the wall - everyone has started manoeuvring like mad for the moment, on Sunday night, when the guillotine finally falls and the nation is declared to have voted Non.
So what will happen? We can already make some educated guesses about the immediate aftermath of the coming debacle in France. In Brussels, on the other hand, things are rather less sure - in other words, nobody seems to have a clue. I'll leave it to better-informed colleagues to gaze into that particlar crystal ball.
In Paris, the two things of which everyone is sure are that the president, Jacques Chirac, will stay, and that poor old Jean-Pierre Raffarin will go.
It may be the day after, or possibly the week after, but the amiable but bumbling PM - currently the most unpopular in the history of the Fifth Republic - is on the way out. Even Mr Chirac cannot realistically ignore the awesome level of unhappiness with his government that the past month or so of campaigning has revealed.
There are two serious contenders for the post, and a handful of outsiders. The rival pair are the suave and aristocratic interior minister, Dominique de Villepin, who is best known to the world for his powerful, poetic if ultimately futile UN speech against the looming war on Iraq, and the combative, capable but apparently not over-bright defence minister, Michele Alliot-Marie.
The former, a trusted and influential member of the Chirac inner circle, is much favoured by the president's closest advisers: in the words of one, he represents "authority, energy and eloquence". He has, however, never held an elected office, which even in France is something of a drawback (Nicolas Sarkozy said as much, rather spitefully, in a rally last night).
The latter, known as MAM, is seen as loyal, unquestioning and efficient. She is also, as the term goes, "Sarko-compatible", meaning that her appointment as PM (unlike de Villepin's) would not lead to all-out war with the thrusting young president of the ruling UMP party. There are, however, doubts over her stamina.
Among the outsiders being mentioned in Chiraquian circles are the health minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, and Jean-Louis Borloo, the active and well-liked minister for "social cohesion".
There remain two possible but highly unlikely options: that Raffarin will stay (because, in the words of one Elysee palace insider, "he's acceptable to Sarkozy and de Villepin, and he's basically the solution that will cause Chirac the least hassle"), and that Sarkozy will be handed the poisoned chalice in a bid to kill him off before the 2007 presidential elections.
Except in the event of a big NoN score (say more than 54%), however, this latter course is seen as ultra-high risk for Chirac, and is unlikely because
a) the two men loathe each other, and
b) Sarko's referendum campaign, stressing that France should vote Yes because Europe will force it to reform, has been antithetical to the president's.
On the deeply-split left, the picture is clear as mud. Several scenarios are possible, from a burying of the hatchets among the Socialist hierarchy, several of whom are campaigning actively for a Non vote, to a historic split into a "modern" social-democratic party and a more traditional, protectionist and dirigiste breakaway force.
Most experts believe that, with a Non vote at 52% or 53%, there will be a temporary truce, the party leader Francois Hollande will hang on to his job, and his dissident no 2, Laurent Fabius, will hold onto his.
A night of the long knives, in the form of an extraordinary party congress, will then sort things out in the autumn. But with a Non vote No at 54% or 55%, Hollande will, in all likelihood, have to go.
Insiders then see a battle royal - possibly leading to a split - between Fabius, backed by other Non campaigners such as Henri Emmanuelli and Arnaud Montebourg, and the former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn and his allies on the moderate, reformist right of the party.
In either event, the Socialists are thought likely to pay heavily for their divisions and infighting over the constitution: no serious commentator gives them a chance of winning the next presidential elections, which are now less than two years away.
