A majority of voters in six crucial marginal seats are sceptical of the Abbott government’s central budget messages – saying they believe the Coalition will make more cuts to health and education and has not done enough to create jobs – but many of them have not shifted their vote to Labor.
A ReachTEL poll in six Coalition-held marginals was commissioned by the Australian Council of Trade Unions as it plans a multimillion dollar grassroots campaign against the Abbott government in 30 electorates across the country.
Most published polls show the Coalition gaining ground since its second budget, but continuing to lag Labor by around 52% to 48% on two-party-preferred terms.
In each of the marginal seats polled by the ACTU there was a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor.
The telephone poll of between 650 and 700 voters in each seat, taken last Sunday night, suggests the government has not yet convinced the electorate that it has finished with deep cuts to spending in its 2014 budget, nor satisfied them that it has done enough to create jobs – the central message of budget 2015.
“We are transforming the ACTU into a permanent campaigning organisation so that unions can campaign on the issues that matter to working people – whether it’s job security, universal healthcare and high-quality education or making sure that companies pay their fair share of tax,” said ACTU secretary, Dave Oliver, as the union peak body prepares for its triennial national congress, starting Tuesday.
“We will have unions campaigning on the ground and online in around 30 key marginal seats around the country. If there is an early election, we’ll be ready for it,” he said.
In the northern NSW seat of Page, won from Labor by the Nationals Kevin Hogan in 2013, 54.5% thought the Abbott government would make more cuts to health and education, including 64% of undecided voters, and 66.9% thought the government was not doing enough on job security. The poll showed Hogan suffering a primary vote swing of around 4%, with the Greens the main beneficiaries.
In the Victorian seat of Corangamite, won in 2013 by Sarah Henderson, the poll also shows a swing of around 4% – again shifting to the Greens or “undecideds”. Close to 50% expect more cuts to health and education, including 58% of undecided voters and 62.5% think the government has not done enough to create jobs.
In the north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which LNP MP Warren Entsch won back from Labor at the last election, 52.4% think more spending cuts are coming, and 65.3% think not enough is being done about jobs. But the 2.3% swing against the LNP is once again not shifting to Labor.
The picture was broadly similar in the Liberal-held marginals of Hindmarsh, in South Australia, Braddon in Tasmania and Swan in Western Australia – where the primary vote swing against Liberal Steve Irons was more severe, but again had not transferred to the Labor party.
The 1,000 delegates to the national congress set the direction for the union movement, but the leadership has already announced higher affiliation fees to raise a “war chest’ to fund the grassroots campaigning aimed at preventing the Abbott government from winning a second term.
