Voters go to the polls in crucial Welsh Parliament by-election

Voters will go to the polls on Thursday in a by-election that could mark a historic shift in Welsh politics.

Labour has run the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds.

But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh Government have run fierce campaigns in the South Wales constituency.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and his party’s candidate, Llyr Powell in front of a Tommy Cooper statue while campaigning (Ben Birchall/PA) (PA Wire)

Polling stations open at 7am and close at 10pm, and the result is expected in the early hours on Friday.

In recent polling, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have been forecast as the two biggest parties in Wales next year.

The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election next May and is likely to be treated as such by the victorious party.

The by-election also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh Government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign.

When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth campaigning with party candidate Lindsay Whittle (Ben Birchall/PA Wire) (PA Wire)

While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote in January could be even more difficult if the party loses the Caerphilly seat.

Speaking at a press conference in Caerphilly last month, Nigel Farage announced Reform’s candidate, Llyr Powell, and pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign in Caerphilly.

Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a long-standing councillor in the Penyrheol ward and leader of the group on Caerphilly Council.

The Labour candidate is Richard Tunnicliffe, a financial analyst and publisher.

The candidates fielded by other parties are Gareth Potter, for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes, for the Green Party, and Anthony Cook for Gwlad, a Welsh pro-independence party.

Steve Aicheler is running for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Quilliam is the candidate for Ukip.

The by-election was called following the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016.

There will be an inquest into his death in April next year.