For those sitting back awaiting an orderly transfer of power from the failing conservative government to a progressive opposition, I offer a short note on behalf of the Australian voting public: nothing is inevitable
There is a growing mood that it is only a matter of time before this divided and increasingly trigger-happy mob are decommissioned, that the political contest is for all intents and purposes over.
But while the prime minister has been blundering across the world stage as his colleagues take pot shots at each other and attempt to defund food relief services over the past week, we have actually witnessed a tightening in the polling numbers.
This week’s Essential Report has the two-party preferred contest narrowing to a 52-48 lead to the ALP, following a drop in Labor’s primary vote of 4% and a slight uptick in the Coalition primary.
Could this be some much-anticipated ‘Sco-Momentum,’ fuelled by the ghost bus and his mistaken belief that the Middle East peace process should be brokered in Double Bay? Frankly, it’s hard to conceive of a universe where these are the conditions for an electoral resurgence.
So how to explain the poll change? One could put the results down to the margin of error. Polls of 1,000 voters are an abstraction and, as I regularly bore my friends, movements within three percentage points are hardly worth comment. Except we do and, given that the Fairfax Ipsos poll picked up a similar tightening, we should at least comprehend the possibility that something else is going on.
Another explanation is that there has also been a lot collateral noise over the past fortnight, an attack characterised as “terrorist” on the streets of Melbourne, a high octane state election endgame, a political scandal claiming a Labor leader in NSW. Maybe, but these too appear long bows to pull.
Secondary questions in this week’s Essential Report may provide a better explanation for a tightening race, if that’s what we are actually seeing.
The first table shows that the majority of voters are yet to lock in their votes. As the below table shows, only one in two Labor voters are in the bag. A further third are firm but might change.
Nearly 20% of votes are still up for grabs, even though respondents are declaring a preference at present. This suggests ongoing movement between the parties is more likely than unlikely.
If this is true, what we may be picking up is simply the noise of uncommitted voters shuffling until they find somewhere comfortable to land.
This cohort is typically regarded as the “soft voter” whose engagement in politics is low, meaning they can only be reached with slogans and feelings, usually in the closing days of an electoral contest. But the second table, below, paints a different picture.
Those who say their vote is up for grabs are actually less likely to say they have lost interest in politics, or that Australia needs more alternate parties, than more committed voters.
Where they stand out from the crowd is actually around two other statements: that there is no substantial difference between the major parties (51%) and that neither of the majors have a long-term plan for Australia (67%).
Unsurprisingly, this leads a strong majority (73%) to consider turning their backs on both and turning to independents, but the point is the driver of this behaviour is a disillusionment with political parties rather than with politics.
As Essential’s research director Andrew Bunn points out, rather than wanting less from politics, maybe they are actually looking for more.
If true, this could change how we think about soft voters. If they are actually demanding better policy, rather than just wanting to be left alone, the political contest may need to be redrawn.
One more question fills out this riddle. When asked whether government should be doing more or less in certain areas of policy and delivery, the answer is resounding: the era of small government is over.
A strong majority overall want to see the government step up across the board, but most specifically on addressing the challenges of ageing, transitioning to renewables and ensuring access to affordable housing. Unsurprisingly, among independent voters this appetite is even stronger.
If there is succour for Labor in these findings it is that on all three areas they have significant policy either in the field or in progress, with a 50% renewable target by 2030, strong tax policies on negative gearing and capital gains. Meanwhile the Morrison government is batting zero from three. And that’s before we get to income inequality.
For those who care about progressive politics, it is also a call from the heartland to engage and advocate, rather than just bombarding people with ads and emails and robocalls and hoping you can trick them into voting for your side.
The message from these figures is that the public may be looking for more than is being put in front of them at the moment. They fear that neither side has the answers, but they haven’t given up on them just yet.
If this attitude ends up defining the next election, it may not be the soul-crippling exercise it is shaping up as. It may even bring voters back to the centre.
• Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential and a Guardian Australia columnist
