ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. _ The decision became official on Monday, though, in some ways, it was made long before that. As the nonwaiver trade deadline passed earlier this week, the Royals elected to hold onto Edinson Volquez, the 33-year-old starter who can become a free agent in the offseason.
The decision was made for baseball reasons, a calculated risk that will play out this offseason. But the ripple effects began to be felt Wednesday night, in a 12-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
In his first start since the deadline, Volquez allowed seven earned runs in five innings, including a ruinous four spot in the bottom of the first. In his last two outings, he has turned gas can, allowing 14 runs and 20 hits across 11 innings. As the Royals (51-56) suffered their first loss in three nights here in St. Petersburg, Volquez's season ERA ballooned to a season-high 4.99.
The performance of Volquez on Wednesday will offer no referendum or judgment on the decision to stand pat at the trade deadline. But his numbers over the final two months of the season could complicate the Royals' decision-making process in the offseason.
The decision to hold onto Volquez hinged on a simple thought process. General manager Dayton Moore said the club did not receive an offer that made sense for them. The Royals saw value in keeping Volquez for the rest of the 2016.
When the season is over, Volquez will almost certainly decline a mutual option worth $10 million for next season, becoming a free agent in the process. The Royals can counter by presenting a "qualifying offer", a one-year contract that is projected to be worth close to $16.7 million in 2017.
If Volquez accepts, the Royals would have the services of a veteran starting pitcher for $17 million _ plus a $3 million buyout from his old deal. Which makes tracking the performance of Volquez critical over the next two months.
For parts of two seasons, Volquez has proven to be a dependable member of the starting rotation. Even during a turbulent 2016, he has already been worth close to $11 million, according to advanced metrics at FanGraphs.com. The old Volquez could reasonably be worth a hefty one-year contract. But if this latest version of Volquez is a new normal, if the decline is already taking place, the "qualifying offer" gambit could come with a healthy degree of risk.
On Wednesday, the Rays shelled Volquez for four runs in the first inning, peppering the outfield with line drives and extra-base hits. Steven Souza Jr. landed the first knockdown, roping a three-run homer that stretched the lead to 4-0.
The start followed a theme. In 23 starts, Volquez has now allowed 22 earned runs in the first inning, a number that translates to an 8.60 ERA. The statistic, of course, is skewed by the nine runs Volquez allowed to the Houston Astros in an historically bad outing on June 24. But even when you remove that outlier, his first-inning ERA is still 5.08.
In his last two starts, Volquez has allowed a combined seven runs before the second inning. His early struggles sunk the Royals on Wednesday night.
As Volquez and the bullpen struggled _ Chien-Ming Wang put up another dismal outing _ the offense barely made a whimper. Former Royals prospect Jake Odorizzi allowed two hits over six innings, extending his scoreless innings streak to 202/3. The Kansas City offense has averaged just 2.6 runs during its last 15 games.
By the end, the carnage looked like this: Volquez was underwhelming. The offense was listless. The Royals fell to five games under .500, losing by at least 12 runs for the second time in nine games.
