So, this is what the world looks like when America is weak. And, make no mistake – Donald Trump is choosing weakness over asserting America’s considerable strength.
Overnight, Iran and Israel continued to fire rockets at one another. Meanwhile, Russia launched a huge air assault on civilian targets in Kyiv, killing 15 and injuring 44. What, exactly, is the world’s greatest dealmaker and self-proclaimed peace lover doing about it?
Well, he left the G7 meeting in Canada early, but made absolutely clear that it had nothing to do with the crisis in the Middle East, it was something “far greater”. Maybe he’s launching a new cryptocurrency.
Back in January, Trump said he would be “a peacemaker and unifier”; that his administration would leverage US power to “stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent, and totally unpredictable”.
Five months into his second presidency and the world is, if anything, angrier, more violent and far less predictable.
Let’s start with Iran and Israel. It’s plausible that the last five days of fighting wouldn’t have broken out if Iran hadn’t been pushed to the brink in negotiations over its nuclear programme with the US.
Of course, Iran having a nuclear weapon would be extremely dangerous and would make the region considerably less stable. But, as others have pointed out, the need for negotiations wouldn’t even exist had Trump not pulled out of the nuclear deal agreed under Barack Obama.
Having effectively torn up Obama’s perfectly good deal that was backed by other countries – including Russia – Trump then set an arbitrary deadline on negotiations with Iran, which expired the same day as Israel’s aerial campaign on Iran started, hitting key strategic sites and taking out military leaders.
It’s worth noting that Trump actually discouraged Israel from launching attacks on Iran back in October after Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, instead encouraging negotiations.
The unfolding horror in the Middle East has pushed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine down the agenda – much to the delight of Vladimir Putin, one would imagine.
Since Trump took office, Russia has continued its assault on Ukraine while dodging peace talks and giving Trump the runaround. The distraction in the Middle East, Ukrainian sources fear, will give Putin cover to carry out even more brutal attacks in his attempts to steal more land ahead of future negotiations.
On a recent visit to the country, a Ukrainian security official told me Trump’s “peace talks” have actually given Moscow greater incentives to intensify its attacks, because Putin knows there will be little blowback from America, provided Russia keeps turning up to these farcical negotiations.
This is what I mean when I say Trump is choosing weakness. America has the power to bring people to the negotiating table, but it offers no real sticks or carrots.
Sure, he’s moving military assets to the Middle East, but both Iran and Israel know that the Maga movement is split on US involvement in an overseas war. And of course, he could tell Putin that if he doesn’t stop his rampage on Ukraine, it’s gloves off.
But all evidence suggests he won’t. All the while, the violence and instability get worse. America is still the West’s sole great power. It is certainly the only nation that can individually force its will on the rest of the world.
Whether or not that’s a good thing is for another time – as is the conversation about how the rest of the West allowed America to wield such unilateral power.
Right now, the only thing that matters is that America could assert its influence on two conflicts that risk escalating and possibly interacting in a way that makes the world a considerably more dangerous place.
If only the man in the White House could find the courage to use his power for good.
