Although many voters will be horrified at the idea that Nigel Farage could become prime minister, Reform UK’s consistent lead in the opinion polls means the prospect must be taken seriously. In his latest pitch, Mr Farage has struck an unlikely pose as the leader who can save our democratic system from an extreme right-wing government much more dangerous than a Reform-led one.
His argument is nakedly self-serving. Mr Farage wants to build on Reform’s growing support by making his party more respectable to voters who have not made the leap. He has distanced himself from the right-wing criminal Tommy Robinson, but said that, while he is not in the camp of Andrew Tate, the misogynist influencer, he can “see why he’s doing well”. Mr Farage told The Sunday Times he hopes young men will turn to him to give them a voice “because if I don’t, you wait till what comes after me”. He added: “Those who try to demonise me could be in for a terrible shock once I’m gone. That’s why we say we believe that we are the last chance to restore confidence in the democratic system, to change things.”
The Independent thinks voters should not be taken in by Mr Farage’s attempt to make his distasteful nationalist-populist product more palatable. They should remember that the mask slipped when he called for the two-child benefit cap to be lifted; he said this should be limited to “British families”, excluding “those that come into the country and suddenly decide to have a lot of children”. Nor has Mr Farage put away his dog whistle on immigration: he shamelessly twisted the words of Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, to claim he would prioritise the needs of Pakistanis – a tactic used by the very right-wing extremist groups the Reform leader purports to be better than. Reform MPs have also deliberately stirred tensions by calling for a ban on the burqa.
However, both Labour and the Conservatives have lessons to learn from Mr Farage’s latest attempt to invade their natural territory. He argued that Labour has “become the party of the bourgeoisie, very middle-class”. Although Sir Keir Starmer and his ministers champion “working people,” Labour has lost much of its traditional class-based support. Last week’s British social attitudes survey reported that, even in last year’s landslide, Labour won the support of only 30 per cent of people in semi-routine and routine occupations, compared with 42 per cent of those in professional and managerial jobs. Age and education have supplanted class as the main dividing line in politics: only 5 per cent of graduates voted for Reform, compared with 25 per cent of those with qualifications below an A-level.
As The Independent reported yesterday, Britons earning more than £70,000 a year are more likely to vote Labour than for any other party, while 32 per cent of people in households with an income of £20,000 or less now support Reform, with Labour well behind on 19 per cent.
Pendulum politics, when either Labour or the Tories do well and the other badly, appears to be over: five parties now register 10 per cent or more in the polls, with the Liberal Democrats not far behind the Tories and the Greens also making inroads into Labour’s support. However, it seems Labour strategists want to preserve the two-party system by writing off the Tories as “a dead party walking” and “sliding into brain-dead oblivion,” as Sir Keir put it. Labour wants to turn the next general election into a presidential contest between Sir Keir and Mr Farage, hoping that disillusioned centrist and left-of-centre voters will hold their nose and back Labour to keep the Reform leader out of Downing Street. It’s a crude tactic and, to work, will surely need to be coupled with some positive reasons for voting Labour, such as tangible improvements on public services and the cost of living.
Sir Keir should think through the consequences of kicking the Tories while they are down. Although their leaders would never admit in public, both Labour and the Tories have an interest in the other doing better than they currently are. It would help the Tories if Labour’s justified attacks on Reform’s “fantasy economics” damage Mr Farage’s party, and Labour can show the government machine is not broken. It might suit Labour if the irrelevant-looking Tories get back in the game and prevent a Reform victory by splitting the right-wing vote.
The public has voted for change three times and been disappointed – in the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2019 and 2024 general elections. If Sir Keir cannot turn things round after his difficult first year as prime minister, the fear of many voters that mainstream parties are “all the same” will be justified. Mr Farage, not an extremist party of the right or left, will be the beneficiary. Labour and the Tories are both drinking in the last chance saloon.
