The guns have fallen silent in Gaza. The bombing has ceased. The Israeli troops are starting their withdrawal. Palestinian civilians are returning to what is left of their homes. Within a fortnight of its launching, the first tentative phase of the Trump peace plan is well underway – and ahead of schedule. A ceasefire, as the people of the region understand only too well, is not the same as the end of warfare – and certainly not, as yet, the lasting peace that has eluded them for so long.
But, for the moment, the practical effect is the same. The immediate threat of death or injury has been lifted, the remaining hostages will be coming home, and Palestinian prisoners will be released. We can now begin to hope that tensions will diminish, humanitarian aid will ease the famine, and the momentum behind this initiative will become a little stronger.
No one with any experience or knowledge of the region quite shares Donald Trump’s limitless optimism about “everlasting peace”, but there are certainly grounds for hope, along with some cause for gratitude to the president for his efforts.
For Mr Trump, it must feel poignant that this potentially historic moment coincides with the announcement of the latest winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado – a Venezuelan opposition campaigner – in recognition of her “tireless work” for democracy. As it happens, Ms Machado is an ally of Mr Trump in resisting the dictatorial tendencies of Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro.
She is a worthy laureate, and says Mr Trump should have received the award, but the president and his allies clearly believe he has been unfairly overlooked. They should reflect on the fact that when nominations closed in January, Mr Trump was still backing Benjamin Netanyahu’s unrestricted warfare, and contemplating relocating the remaining Palestinian population from their homeland.
Now, with this bold and unexpected initiative, Mr Trump, for all his obvious flaws and mixed record at home and abroad, is a much more plausible candidate for next year’s award. Indeed, the prospect of securing this most storied of prizes should give the US president an additional incentive, as the chair of the Board of Peace overseeing the process, to keep his plan steady on its course, and continue to use American power to that end – and that means pressuring Israel, if need be.
The ultimate goal – of a comprehensive regional settlement in which a peaceful and sovereign Palestinian nation may coexist with the state of Israel – is one that has eluded many of the past Nobel laureates, such as Menachem Begin, Anwar Sadat, Yasser Arafat, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, not to mention various of Mr Trump’s predecessors as president of the United States.
Mr Trump is an improbable candidate for the role of Prince of Peace, and his authoritarian, anti-democratic tendencies cannot be discounted. Nor can his inexplicable past appeasement of Vladimir Putin over the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. American trade policy, it is only fair to add, has also served to heighten international tensions.
However, he has played a role in brokering settlements in numerous international conflicts, even if that role is sometimes exaggerated, and the achievements that have so far come in the Middle East speak for themselves. When the president arrives in the region on Monday, he will enjoy the unfamiliar experience of being lauded by Israelis and Palestinians alike. As the popular phrase goes, “Who had that on their bingo card for 2025?”
But American presidents, international envoys, and all the emirs, princes, kings, prime ministers and presidents of the region, cannot, with all their power and riches, make a peace plan work unaided. That is a task, principally, for Palestinians and Israelis themselves. Both have shown formidable resilience and patience in times of war. Now they need to show that they are equally prepared to be resilient and patient in the search for peace and a lasting settlement.
These are, literally, early days in an arduous struggle for regional stability, security and prosperity – and, like every peace process before it, this one will be marked by disappointments and periodic failures. The most dangerous moments are already predictable. Can Israel accept a truly sovereign Palestinian state? Will Hamas disarm? What happens if Iran or one of its proxies tries to restart hostilities?
What will be the fate of the illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank? It might take only one Hamas-inspired suicide bomber in Jerusalem, a random barrage of missiles from south Lebanon into Israel, or one rogue IDF unit to set progress back. A peace process can easily lose its momentum.
That is precisely why the entire international community needs to set aside any legitimate grievances against President Trump, and get behind the plan – particularly in financial support for the rebuilding of Gaza, and in offering security guarantees. As Mr Trump might put it, his plan is the only game in town – and the least of the priceless benefits it will yield in the years ahead is a Nobel Peace Prize for its unlikely architect.
Trump deserves high praise for Gaza – but only if he sees it through to the end
How will Donald Trump react to not winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
The people I spoke to in Hostages Square know Netanyahu faces a reckoning
‘Next year, let’s see’: Readers on Trump’s failed Nobel Peace Prize bid
Trump’s unlikely ceasefire deal is a reason to rejoice
With her stamp duty pledge, Kemi Badenoch has rediscovered the Tories’ political mojo
