We must not let Reform dominate the summer,” Kemi Badenoch told Conservative MPs in an end-of-term pep talk. True, she grabbed some headlines with a limited shadow cabinet reshuffle, but so far, Reform UK is dominating the summer.
Other carefully constructed Tory initiatives go largely unreported, to the party’s frustration, while Nigel Farage makes news with that smirk or by raising an eyebrow.
He is now widening his pitch beyond immigration, which he has banked as a vote-winner, and will campaign on law and order over the summer. His pledge to halve crime at a cost of £17bn doesn’t add up. But it still garnered positive headlines; Reform is judged by different standards than rival parties. It is now seen as the best party on handling law and order.
Farage got lucky with his timing. Yesterday’s Daily Mail front page, on his crime campaign, was manna from heaven: “Britain is facing societal collapse, warns Farage.” His backing of the protests outside an asylum hotel in Epping, Essex – and his dismissal of those arrested as “a few bad eggs” – might have been attacked by other parties in normal times.
But deputy prime minister Angela Rayner made a highly significant intervention at yesterday’s cabinet meeting, warning that Britain could face a repeat of the riots almost a year ago unless the government addresses people’s concerns, and that immigration is having “a profound impact on society”. It seemed to validate Farage’s warning of “civil disobedience on a vast scale”, sparking fears of another summer of violence.
Downing Street’s briefings on cabinet meetings are normally as dry as dust. Its release of the deputy prime minister’s remarks tells us that the government does not want to look flat-footed and not “in control” if there is more civil unrest this summer.
Nor can Labour allow Farage a monopoly on proposals to crack down on illegal migration. Hence today’s announcement of a deal between the government and food delivery companies to tackle hotspots of illegal working, sometimes near asylum hotels. “This is a pull factor for migrants crossing the Channel,” one government insider admitted.
On other issues, Reform has been less lucky. It sometimes shoots from the lip without thinking things through. Richard Tice, its deputy leader, sent shockwaves through industry by suggesting the party would scrap renewable energy contracts if it wins power, before half-retreating and saying a Reform government would oppose “any form of variation” to the contracts. Labour warned that 1 million jobs would be at risk from Reform’s plan. Tice temporarily forgot his party’s pitch to the red wall: left on economics and right on social issues.
He appeared to translate people’s concerns about the cost to them of net zero measures like heat pumps and electric cars into opposition to climate change measures. In fact, a majority of Reform supporters back policies to combat climate change.
With Reform consistently ahead in the opinion polls, the business world must take Farage seriously as a future prime minister, but its attempts to engage with his party are proving difficult. Business wants to know about Reform’s policies, but the party has no formal policy-making process. As with his pal Donald Trump, policy seems to be whatever Farage thinks when he wakes up in the morning or announces on the hoof.
“Policy is what Farage says – everything is decided by him,” one business figure told me. “It’s hard to work out what is just another headline and a serious policy.” Farage has started to hold business meetings. “Everyone gets a bit p***ed, but we don’t learn much,” another company executive said.
How will Reform deliver its pledge to raise the personal tax allowance from £12,570 to £20,000 at a cost of between £50bn and £80bn? We don’t know. Will this promise survive a rigorous policy process, as the grown-ups in Reform know the party needs?
Such fantasy economics, based on deep spending cuts – with Reform sometimes pledging to spend the same billions of savings more than once – is Farage’s achilles heel. That’s what other parties should target.
“Farage is a vibe,” one minister said, “it’s hard to attack a vibe.” But the other parties need to find a way.
For now, many voters are not bothered about whether Reform’s sums add up. The public will have a free hit at next May’s elections to English local authorities, including London and Birmingham, and the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. That is bad news for both Keir Starmer and Badenoch, whose leadership will come under pressure if their parties do badly, as they probably will.
But voters will care about the details of Reform’s economic pitch when they come to choose a government at the next general election. A vibe will not be enough.
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