So now we know why America partially evacuated some of its embassies in the Middle East with such haste. It knew very well what was coming: a massive pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and key military personnel.
Assassinating Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guard, a political as well as a military force, is a symbol and a warning to the ayatollahs of what damage Israel can inflict on them if it so wishes. It is also – or should be – a similar symbol and a warning to the United States of what Benjamin Netanyahu is capable of when he senses his domestic political purposes are best served. He will act, in the words of the US secretary of state Marco Rubio, “unilaterally”.
To borrow a phrase, Netanyahu is an “Israel First” politician.
Did he defy Donald Trump? Not to the extent of blindsiding him completely. The Israeli prime minister did the American president the courtesy of giving him some warning, so that American diplomatic personnel could get out of the area in the highly likely event of retaliation by Iran and its terrorist allies.
No matter what Washington says, they will suspect the president of not only knowing about the Israeli onslaughts but actively approving and assisting in them. Netanyahu obviously knew American lives would be endangered – hence the warning – and went ahead anyway.
It seems highly improbable Trump did encourage Israel to act, and would likely have preferred Netanyahu not to do so. Trump has sufficient sympathy for the Israelis, and frustration with Iran, to prevent him trying to veto the attacks, but maybe sensed that whatever he said, Netanyahu might have gone ahead anyway, in some form.
Israel and Iran have anyway been waging a proxy war on and off for almost half a century, since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the fall of the shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The invention of the protective Iron Dome over Israel changed the dynamic, and when the massive Iranian missile and drone assault on Israel earlier in the year failed, it proved its worth and tipped the balance of power in the region.
That, however, merely confirmed in Iranian minds why they needed a nuclear weapon to restore the balance – and give them a new deterrent against Israel. After all, it is widely believed that Israel has undeclared nuclear weapons, too.
So, the on-off Iran-Israel conflict has entered a new phase, and whether the situation ends up in America’s interests is doubtful. Without regime change in Tehran – a possibility, but not certainty – Iran will press on with its efforts, aided and abetted to varying degrees by powerful allies: Russia and North Korea.
Indeed, North Korea stands as the template for what a smallish power can do with an outsized weapon of mass destruction – make itself immune to attack and regime change. It’s what Saddam Hussein never managed to get in time before Iraq was invaded and he ended up hanged for his crimes. (It is worth noting that it was an Israeli air attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 that effectively halted Saddam’s ambitions in that direction, and left him relying on chemical weapons, real and imagined, to strike terror into the hearts of his adversaries.)
Iran, with its friends, will now redouble its effects to achieve regional nuclear parity. So, in that case, will Saudi Arabia.
It is fair to say that none of this is what Trump wanted. He doesn’t need another war to try and control. He doesn’t need the price of oil rising and the world pushed closer to recession. He would much prefer his peace talks with the Iranians in Rome, troubled as they were, to proceed in the interests of a “deal” – one of his favourite words, as we know.
Instead, Netanyahu has just gone ahead and interfered yet again with Trump’s regional plans to end the Gaza war, form a new alliance with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and achieve detente with Iran. Netanyahu has wrecked Trump’s prospective deal with Tehran and made him look the fool. The president of the United States just indulged BiBi as he has so inexplicably in Gaza.
For all his bombast and bluster and the Pyongyang-style military parade he has planned, Trump emerges from this latest episode in his turbulent presidency as a diminished, weaker figure. He is still very good at bullying friendly states such as Canada, and alienating powerful ones that he really does need, such as China, but he is curiously feeble when it comes to restraining the “strong men” he identifies with, even when they choose to humiliate him and undermine America’s national interests.
The peace deals that he told us he would strike within days with the help of Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un and Benjamin Netanyahu are actually further away than ever, and even he must wonder (as he occasionally admits) if he’s been played along by these consummate cynical deceivers.
Anyway, Mr President, enjoy your birthday parade...
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