There always seems to be a much sharper dividing line between the summer holidays and the restart of the political season in France than in Britain. That line is particularly sharp this year, with a full-blown political crisis developing in France that could leave the country without a government in days, and perhaps facing new parliamentary elections in weeks. It could even precipitate an early presidential election, should Emmanuel Macron decide that, rather than hang on until spring 2027, he would rather stamp his foot and walk away.
The immediate cause of the current crisis is an austerity budget put together by the current prime minister, veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, designed to put France’s debt-ridden public finances on a sounder footing. It is naturally unpopular in the country at large – and if both the hard left (Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed) and the far right (Marine Le Pen’s National Rally) join forces to oppose it in parliament, it is dead in the water.
What makes this not only a budget row, however, but a test of France’s overall governability is that Bayrou has separately called a vote of confidence in the National Assembly for 8 September on whether the state of the public finances constitutes a national emergency. This could be seen as simple brinkmanship. But it is also a high-risk move that, if lost, could cut some of the remaining political ground from beneath Macron’s feet, as well as triggering months of uncertainty, culminating perhaps in the sort of economic meltdown and humiliating IMF bailout that some whisper could also soon threaten the UK.
And what then? The spectre looms, as it has done periodically in the recent past, of the far-right winning an overall majority in the National Assembly, of Macron facing an awkward remainder of his presidency – or, if he chose to resign, opening the way for Marine Le Pen to become president.
It should hardly need to be said that, while no time is good for a political meltdown or such a drastic shift in power, the coming months would be one of the worst times not just for France, but perhaps even more for the UK and for Europe.
In the UK, the still-increasing number of small boat crossings has risen ever further up the political agenda, along with the use of hotels to house asylum seekers. This government has placed much weight on improving cooperation with France to reduce the numbers. But a France either in political flux or with a new far-right government could prove even less amenable than before. Whatever goodwill was invested in the so-called “one in, one out” agreement – which has still to prove its worth – the prospect of its being expanded or even continued would look small.
It is not hard, either, to envisage a tougher line from France to the effect that the small boats are an entirely UK problem, and that France has no interest in preventing the crossings or making life easier for the UK. Promised French legislation empowering the authorities to stop small boats from leaving once in the water has also yet to be passed, and could well be abandoned.
The other area that could be affected immediately by political change in France is Europe’s policy towards Ukraine. Macron has, with Keir Starmer, been at the forefront of efforts to form a so-called coalition of the willing to be deployed in some as-yet undetermined way in the event of an agreement to end the war, or even suspend hostilities. Both the hard left and the far right in France are as sceptical about continued help for Ukraine, as their equivalents are in Germany.
Thus far, Macron, as president, has been able to steer foreign policy above and beyond the National Assembly. But a parliamentary majority for the far right, a National Rally prime minister and even, if it came to that, a Le Pen protege as president, could change French policy very fast. That could include reopening contacts with Moscow, an end to, or scaling back of, military and financial support for Ukraine, and pressure on Kyiv to make territorial concessions.
That would also alter the balance in the EU and Europe more generally, leaving the UK and a newly defence-oriented Germany no longer even appearing to command a consensus, especially given the continuing refusal of Poland – the other big European country – to take part in a coalition of the willing.
Now, it is fair to say that none of this may happen. Macron has been a master at pulling chestnuts from the fire during his eight years in power, even though some of the fires (such as last year’s snap election) were of his own making. Bayrou might yet offer concessions on public spending; abolishing only one, rather than two, public holidays might get his budget through. He might just win the confidence vote if he can persuade the Socialist MPs to join him – though that looks unlikely as everyone seems to be spoiling for a fight.
Nor, if it comes to new parliamentary elections, is it guaranteed that National Rally would emerge victorious, despite the rightward trajectory of French and European politics. French voters have in the past come very close to electing the far right, only to shy away at the last moment. The view that a spell with a far-right prime minister might serve to inoculate French voters against electing a far-right president might also have some substance.
But that lies some way ahead. In the event that Bayrou were to survive the confidence vote, he and Macron could live to fight another day. And now that a year has elapsed since the last parliamentary elections that proved such a miscalculation, Macron could choose to gamble – or not – on new elections at a time of his choosing.
At the moment, however, this relatively benign prospect – more of the same political stalemate – looks less likely than almost any of the scenarios that would be worse.
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