A week or so after the shock of the local elections first began to reverberate through the Labour Party, the future of the prime minister is hardly any clearer.
Sir Keir Starmer is proving far more resistant to going quietly than anyone expected, while his principal rival, Andy Burnham, seems far more determined to overcome the obstacles to his entering No 10 than he was last autumn.
Wes Streeting, the only cabinet minister to resign in this crisis, launched his leadership campaign – although it was never acknowledged as such – then effectively ended it for lack of support, only to revive it again with the news that Mr Burnham might well have found a suitable constituency to stand in, with the permission (now confirmed) of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to go ahead.
Ideally, this contest would not be happening, and the government, backed by the party, would be “getting on with the job”, as the Starmer loyalists (and indeed Kemi Badenoch) put it. However, one way or another, some sort of formal leadership challenge feels inevitable. The instability this has caused has already had an impact on the financial markets, pushing the cost of government borrowing higher and the pound lower – with predictably grim consequences for mortgage holders, businesses and the rate of inflation. It would therefore be as well if matters were resolved as swiftly and decisively as possible.
Realistically, this can only happen if, and when, the future of Mr Burnham is determined. He is plainly the choice of the party membership to succeed Sir Keir, and any competition that did not have him on the ballot paper would lack legitimacy and a sense of “closure”. Even if, say, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, or – less likely – Mr Streeting were to win a leadership election, without Mr Burnham in contention things would be left hanging, and the “new” prime minister left indefinitely distracted by the “pretender to the throne” – just as Sir Keir is now.
A relatively rapid end to this crisis is possible, but far from certain. It would mean Mr Burnham being installed unopposed, once he is an MP again. But neither of these elements can be taken for granted. The NEC may have approved Mr Burnham to contest the parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, and the government will also move the writ for the by-election quickly. But then Mr Burnham will need to win the seat, and it won’t be a cinch.
The local elections and the latest polling both point to a Reform UK victory. The area is classically “Leave” territory, while Mr Burnham is unashamedly pro-European. On the other hand, this is also Mr Burnham’s political “backyard”, and he has proved a successful regional mayor. There’s also the possibility of Rupert Lowe’s Restore party intervening and splitting the far-right vote, while Reform hasn’t enjoyed an unblemished record in selecting suitable candidates for elections. There is even talk of the Greens not competing so as to unite the “progressive” vote.
Nigel Farage says he will “throw everything” at stopping Mr Burnham, but so will Mr Burnham’s many local supporters do everything they can to get him into the Commons. Although in theory Mr Burnham could lose, and thence await another by-election, the present opportunity feels very much like it will be a make-or-break affair.
If he is elected, there is little use in anyone trying to fight him for the leadership. All the surveys of party opinion indicate he’d be the runaway winner, even if Mr Streeting seems at the moment determined to have his say – perhaps, given a respectable showing, with an eye to a more senior cabinet role, such as chancellor. For the sake of the country, though, such a pointless circus would best be avoided, and the crisis brought to a close.
One thing that is perfectly clear is that this is an extremely bad way to replace a prime minister who is unwilling to leave office. It cannot be right that a nation of approaching 70 million people will have its next leader selected by the 76,641 voters of Makerfield, decent folk as they are, and about 330,000 Labour activists, who are hardly representative of the general population.
It is no better than when around 150,000 Conservative activists spent weeks in 2019 and 2022 selecting, respectively, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Intra-party democracy crashes into uselessness when a prime-ministerial succession is required – at any time, but particularly during periods of conflict and economic tensions. Perhaps the next Labour leader can have another look at the party’s cumbersome procedures.
