First, a rare slice of good news for Keir Starmer. Voters are less worried about the NHS than they were. The number of people citing it as one of the most important issues facing the country has dropped to 35 per cent, its lowest figure for three years, according to More in Common.
Voters tell focus groups they are noticing some improvements, reflecting the four million extra NHS appointments since Labour came to power and a slight fall in waiting times in accident and emergency departments.
And now the bad news for Starmer: the NHS has been overtaken as an important issue by immigration, which has risen from just over 30 per cent a year ago to 50 per cent – and is now second only to the cost of living, on 64 per cent.
It’s a case of one step forward, two steps back – symbolic of the Starmer government’s performance so far.
Rising concern over immigration explains the flurry of announcements in what Downing Street regards as "small boats week” – publication of the “one in, one out” returns agreement with France; a crackdown on social media sites used by the gangs to promote Channel crossings; a plan to speed up the processing of asylum claims; funding for the recruitment of 300 more National Crime Agency officers; and universities being told to ensure foreign students take up places, rather than use them as a back-door entry route.
For Nigel Farage, every week is “crime week”: he has made announcements three weeks running under his new “Britain Is Lawless” banner. However, it seems his real purpose is to cement a link between crime and immigration in the public’s mind. He calls for the deportation of the 10,400 foreign nationals held in prison, another 10,000 to be imprisoned overseas and accuses the police of covering up the immigration status of alleged offenders, which the police deny. Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has asked for guidance to be changed so police can disclose the ethnicity or immigration status of suspects.
The Conservatives, struggling to get a hearing on immigration after their broken promises in power, are happy to shout louder and play the same deeply irresponsible game as Reform. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, claims “increasing evidence of a serious link between illegal migration, migration generally, and crime”, but has not produced one.
Jenrick said 40 per cent of sexual crimes in London last year were committed by foreign nationals. The figures he cited were based on the number of charges and cautions, but not convictions – typically about 40 per cent lower. They also ignore an important factor – age. Foreign nationals are younger than Brits on average, and younger people are more likely to commit a crime.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said nationalities crossing the Channel are 24 times more likely to end up in prison, a claim experts say is statistically flawed.
Both the Tories and Reform claim “Afghans and Eritrean nationals are 20 times more likely to be convicted of a sexual crime than a British national”. This is based on statistics on population from 2021 but offences from 2021-23, a period during which migration from both countries rose. Population figures on foreign nationals are unreliable.
With stats about migrants, the right is playing with fire. It should not stoke community tensions by trumpeting misleading facts at a time when the temperature is rising over asylum hotels – with more protests outside them planned in the coming days.
Although some ministers and Labour backbenchers are squeamish, Starmer is right to go head-to-head with Reform and the Tories on immigration. Labour can’t leave the field to them.
At the same time, the prime minister should not be afraid to tackle the myths. For example, 47 per cent of people believe that immigration is primarily illegal, and 32 per cent that the number of those travelling here illegally is higher. In fact, those arriving on small boats account for only 4 per cent of overall migration. That illustrates the immense power of the broadcasts from the Channel.
Challenging the lies will not mean Labour is “soft” on immigration. Ministers should publish as much data as possible but also explain it, making it harder for others to exploit it misleadingly. They could point out that one in eight people in prison in England and Wales are foreign-born is an under-representation since one in six people were born overseas.
This claim fails to account for age differences and the fact that foreign nationals are less likely to get bail while awaiting trial. Analysts say foreigners are under-represented among those in jail for sexual offences, though you wouldn’t know that from the Tory and Reform claims.
True, releasing more official statistics might sometimes produce uncomfortable headlines. But much better to publish them with some context than allow the populists to pump out dodgy figures unchallenged.
All politicians should use numbers with care rather than to play a divisive, dangerous game. It’s clear that Reform and the Tories are more interested in scoring political points than showing such responsibility. It falls to Labour to do so.
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