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Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has emerged as a significant force in recent elections, following a by-election victory in Runcorn, where Reform’s Sarah Pochin secured a narrow win over Labour.
This victory, coupled with a series of gains in local councils and mayoral races, has prompted Farage to declare it a “phenomenal night” for his party, positioning Reform as the new challenger to the Conservatives.
While the Tories have been battered by losses, and Labour struggles to restore its popularity, Reform is positioning itself as a fresh alternative for disillusioned voters.
As dissatisfaction grows with the two major parties, Farage sees this as an opportunity to replace the Tories as the main opposition, potentially reshaping the political landscape in the coming years.
In a live Q&A for The Independent, I answered your questions on whether Farage’s success will endure, the implications of Reform’s rise, and what Labour and the Tories can do to combat the threat of irrelevance.
From concerns over Farage’s leadership to the broader implications for British politics, the discussion highlighted the shifting dynamics in the UK political scene.
Here’s what you asked during the “Ask Me Anything” event – and how I answered.
Q: Are Reform just another flash in the pan?
ParcelOfRogue
A: All the claims that Farage lacks staying power may be justified, but his great opportunity is that the two established parties are unpopular, and for equally good if not better reasons.
As I have written in The Independent today, yesterday's elections were bad for Labour, but they were even worse for the Tories, because they open up the chance for Farage to eclipse them as the main opposition party. If he can occupy that territory over the next three years, he could turn his lack of government experience to his advantage.
Q: How long will Farage’s success last?
Thecoldwarguy
A: I think Nigel Farage's success is going to last, mainly because the issue of immigration, which drives so much of his support, is so hard to solve.
In by-elections, next year's local elections, and next year's elections in Wales and Scotland, he is going to establish himself as a more effective opposition to Labour than the Tories, while continuing to take advantage of the simultaneous unpopularity of the two established parties.
Q: With razor-thin margins, what concrete steps can we take to ensure every voice is heard in future elections?
futurelsequalon
A: You make an interesting point. Imagine if it had been six votes the other way. All the commentary would have been about Farage falling short and the Labour vote being more resilient than was assumed. That is certainly a way of encouraging Labour activists to stick with it...
Q: What does Starmer need to do to counter Reform?
Robert Elliott
A: I think Starmer has to focus on the NHS, immigration and the cost of living. The Labour government is trying to do too much and needs to stick to just those three priorities to convince those voters that it is on their side.
Q: Can Reform ever be more than just The Nigel Farage Show?
Paul Horgan
A: That is Reform's weakness; I have noticed in some focus groups that voters who might otherwise be tempted to vote for Reform are put off by Farage – they think he is a plausible rogue. But being the "Nigel Farage Show" might be enough to overtake the Tories at the next general election.
Q: Do you think Farage will step down as Reform leader before the next election, and if not, how will they form a functioning government with inexperienced MPs?
SRogers
A: I agree that Farage does not have the answers. His manifesto last year was a joke. His solution to the small boats is to go to war with France. But he reflects discontent rather than creating it. He is very good at that, but you are right that he doesn't always seem to have the temperament to see a plan through, and a government in which he played a part would suffer from lack of experience and teamwork.
Some kind of coming together between Reform and the Tories may be inevitable, but they will try to kill each other first, and in the meantime, may hand the next election to Labour.
Q: How long is it going to take Starmer to learn that you can't appease fascism?
Angharad
A: The PM is criticised from both sides. Some say that he shouldn't emphasise immigration as an issue because he cannot compete with Farage on it, but if he didn't say that controlling immigration was a priority, he would be accused of being out of touch with the legitimate concerns of the majority of voters.
His real problem is that he can't stop the small boats – neither could the Tory government, and it may be that a Farage government couldn't either, but Farage has the great advantage of not having been tested.
Q: Do you think there will be blowback for Starmer within the party, given he chose not to campaign in Runcorn?
A Lal 3000
A: I assume Starmer chose not to campaign in Runcorn because the party advised him that he would lose their votes! He is unpopular and will continue to be until he delivers on the NHS, immigration and the cost of living.
Q: Did Labour's decision to means-test the winter fuel payment plant the seeds for this outcome, knowing Reform would likely capitalise on the resulting resentment?
yewhoho
A: I think the winter fuel cut became symbolic of a government that seemed out of touch and unsympathetic to what Theresa May called the "just about managing". It was intended to show Labour's ability to take tough decisions – in this case, to take a cash handout away from better-off pensioners – but it was poorly targeted, because it also took money away from those on just £12,000 a year who are not entitled to state benefits.
Q: Has voting against the government in local council elections ever really “sent a message to the government”?
TimC
A: Yes, it makes opinion polling real. MPs can fool themselves that opinion polls don't matter, or don't really reflect the public's views, or will change, but they have a reverence for "real votes in real ballot boxes", because they owe their jobs to them.
The opinion polls were bad for Margaret Thatcher in the spring of 1990, but it was the local elections that year that helped tip Tory MPs against her, and she was gone six months later.
Q: Is the rise of Reform driven by a sudden increase in racism and xenophobia in Britain, or is it more a result of the growing similarity between the two major parties and their failure to address rising inequalities?
envious
A: I wouldn't have said that either racism/xenophobia or inequality is "growing" in Britain. Britain is one of the most tolerant countries in the world, which is partly why people want to come here, and which is not to say that there isn't still racism. Statistically, inequality is no worse or better than it has been since the 1990s.
I think support for Nigel Farage's parties, and for Brexit, is mainly an expression of the wish for less immigration, a widespread sentiment that has been badly handled by both Labour and the Tories.
These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 12pm BST on Friday 2 May. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.
For more insight into UK politics, check out John’s weekly Commons Confidential newsletter. The email, exclusive to Independent Premium subscribers, takes you behind the curtain of Westminster. If this sounds like something you would be interested in, head here to find out more.
