The only thing that matters in politics at the moment is stopping the boats. Therefore the test of the cabinet reshuffle is whether Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, can get the numbers down.
Yvette Cooper was not doing a terrible job as home secretary, but the number of people crossing the Channel by small boat has been going up since she has been in office.
This may seem simplistic. There are other things that matter in politics, of course there are – the economy and the NHS being two of the most important. But those are not going too well either. If living standards were soaring and waiting lists were being slashed, it might be easier to ask the voters to be patient about uninvited immigration.
As it is, there is nothing that Labour can do until it fulfils one of the fundamental duties of any government: deciding who can come into the country and who cannot.
I think the mood has shifted. Andrew Marr, the great liberal conscience of The New Statesman and former editor of The Independent, has an essay this week concluding that if Labour cannot stop the boats, Nigel Farage will be prime minister.
He has no truck with the argument that trying to control migration is allowing Reform to set the agenda: “Yes, the online hate-merchants are exploiting something – but the ‘something’ is real. There are many decent people among the protesters, just as there are inside the migrant hotels.”
I think he is right. Sometimes politics is simple. Farage really could be prime minister, and what was significant about the reshuffle was that Keir Starmer showed some urgency about doing what it takes to stop that from happening.
Cooper argues that she understands the dangers full well, but that there are no instant answers. She says the pilot scheme agreed with France in July has started as quickly as possible, and that the first detainees will be returned to France by the end of this month. Privately, her supporters say it is most unusual to get the Home Office to move that quickly.
But it is still not quick enough. I have argued that the pilot scheme was a huge achievement, but it has to get to the point where most new arrivals are put on a plane back to France for it to act as a deterrent. Maybe that will happen, but it will take time, and meanwhile, the French may lose interest and allow the deal to lapse.
Hence, Starmer’s impatience with Cooper, who was pursuing other options, such as reviewing the interpretation of human rights law and thinking about offshore processing centres, but not as an emergency. Relations between Starmer and Cooper have long been cool, and Starmer’s team have often been “frustrated at the time she takes to make decisions”, as Sam Freedman, a well-connected former special adviser, puts it.
Mahmood’s appointment feels, therefore, like Labour’s last chance to stave off Farage. She has had her clashes with Starmer, leading the shadow cabinet push in opposition to take a tougher line against Israel’s policy in Gaza. But she has impressed him with her handling of prison overcrowding. The early release of prisoners, a policy forced on her by the outgoing Conservative government, could have been more damaging to Labour than it has been. Her tough talk, including most unexpectedly on the subject of “chemical castration” for sex offenders, has helped hold the line.
Similarly, her willingness to take on the judges, overruling the sentencing council on the issue of “two-tier justice” for ethnic minority offenders, has marked her out as one of the cabinet’s more forceful members.
Thus Angela Rayner’s resignation did Starmer a favour in bringing forward a reshuffle that was already planned – bouncing him into doing what he should have done straight away. We are told that Starmer often says, “Why not today?” when officials suggest a timetable for action. That kind of urgency is needed throughout government, and nowhere more than the Home Office.
It is not obvious how the boats can be stopped, but Mahmood’s record suggests that she would not be squeamish about trying policies that may have once seemed unthinkable.
She bears quite an extraordinary burden on her shoulders. Unless she succeeds, nothing else that her fellow ministers can achieve will matter. Pat McFadden may get people off benefits and into work; Steve Reed may build lots of houses; Wes Streeting may make real progress in turning the NHS round; Rachel Reeves may enjoy the fruits of an unexpected upturn in the economy. None of that will help if Mahmood cannot stop the boats and close the hotels.
The fate of the government depends on her.
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