Just as Donald Trump was supposed to rain more fire and fury down on Iran by destroying its bridges and power plants, killing its civilians, and – though it seems immaterial to him – thus explicitly committing war crimes, the president has done another “Taco”. He has proved, once again, the value of the conventional wisdom that he always chickens out.
For an unpredictable man, the pattern of behaviour first identified by Wall Street investors has proved a reliable enough guide in the context of US foreign policy. This is a strategic weakness for the United States, because its enemies – in this case Iran – are able to exploit it.
On balance, and provided it’s not upset by some early-hours social media tantrum by the president, the announcement of an extension to the ceasefire in the Iran war is encouraging. This time, as they say, it’s different. Or at least, it should be.
The extension of the ceasefire is now indefinite, so the world, and especially the Iranian people, will be spared the regular trauma of seeing whether Mr Trump will or won’t change his mind – it is never completely a given. Had the US president ordered more bombing raids on Iran, then Iranian retaliation would inevitably have followed, centred on the Gulf states and, in particular, US bases and other assets in the region. The disruption to the world economy, now becoming severe, would have intensified even further.
It is reassuring that the markets’ response to the news was mildly positive, with the assumption being – in financial circles at least – that the crisis may be stabilising, if not entering its endgame. The moments of maximum danger, in other words, may have passed.
Still, those risks remain. The US-Iran peace talks hosted in Islamabad by the Pakistani government have stalled once again. The Iranians now want the president to call off his blockade of maritime traffic going to and from their ports, while keeping their stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. By its actions so far in the region, the US has unilaterally ensured that this internationally crucial waterway will be controlled and taxed for ever.
For obvious reasons, Iran would like the “Tehran tollbooth” to be a permanent fixture. In recent days, its military has not hesitated to attack civilian shipping, with two cargo ships detained. On the American side, the US Navy is keeping up its own blockade in a different part of the Persian Gulf. The net effect is to prevent vital supplies of oil, natural gas, helium, fertiliser, aluminium and much else from flowing to and from global markets.
Unlike so many other regions afflicted by wars and disputes, where fighting winds down into an uneasy truce and long-term stagnation, the Persian Gulf – and the Red Sea and Suez Canal route, for that matter, menaced by the Houthi rebels – cannot be closed indefinitely. It has to be opened before the truly devastating effects on the world economy, concentrated on the poorer nations of Africa and Asia, become irreversible and a depression is triggered. That is the scale of pressure that should, and will, be brought to bear on the US to properly de-escalate its illegal and unnecessary war.
Other pressure will be brought to bear by the major economy that stands to lose the most from a global downturn – China. The consequences of the US Navy being involved in a stand-off with its Chinese counterpart hardly bear thinking about. For all his bellicose instincts, President Trump knows, to borrow his argot, that he cannot mess with Xi Jinping, a man with whom he claims to have a very friendly and respectful relationship.
The industrial and financial realities that lie behind these nations’ respective approaches to foreign policy should prevent that fatal escalation from happening – but it will require the Americans to quietly soften their Iranian blockade. China’s influence on Iran – the former being America’s most important international partner – should also help soften their attitude. Hostile public opinion in the US and the looming midterm elections will also concentrate Maga Republican minds, and push Mr Trump towards jaw-jaw rather than war-war.
For his part, all Mr Trump is demanding from Tehran these days is that it submit a “peace plan”. There is no more talk of “regime change”, “unconditional surrender”, or even ending Iran’s support for its proxies in the region. The president would still, and rightly, expect Iran to renounce its nuclear ambitions, which, ironically, were under some control before this calamitous war was launched at the request of the Israelis. Given that Tehran has in the recent past signalled some willingness to do so, that is not a totally fanciful request.
For their part, the Iranians should insist on Israel ending its invasion of Lebanon and supporting the peace talks to that end, which are proceeding slowly in Washington. The chances of that actually transpiring are probably slim, given that Hezbollah isn’t involved and cannot be relied on to obey Iran if asked to do so. Nonetheless, the outlines of some sort of tacit agreement to end the war and free up world trade again are gradually hoving into view.
It’s rarely wise to be optimistic about the Middle East and US-Iran relations, and there’s no doubt that the world would be better off if the war had never started; but the fact is that the stage wherein Iran and America have more to lose by prolonging the conflict than by ending it is surely approaching. Meanwhile, Mr Trump should take a break from social media.
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