The thing about Keir Starmer is that, even though he is fighting for his political life, he doesn’t betray any of the emotional pressures that must be inwardly convulsing him. This is just as well and is, in fact, the upside of what Boris Johnson calls his “pointless human bollard” quality.
At the moment, he reminds me of a little children’s toy from some years ago – Weebles; stout figures with rounded, heavily weighted bottoms, such that they would tip as far as you could push them, but always right themselves. The slogan was “Weebles wobble, but they don’t fall down.”
The jeopardy Starmer finds himself in is real enough, though. When lobby journalists are approached by anxious Labour backbenchers seeking to unburden themselves about how dreadful the PM is, that’s what the economists would call a leading indicator with a short lag of imminent defenestration.
So bad are things that Starmer has, unusually, been frequenting the Commons tea rooms, dined with Labour MPs he probably can’t recognise, and personally commiserated with those bruised ex-ministers he asked the chief whip to sack in the reshuffle.
It is a great help to Starmer that he has few real rivals from the soft left of the party who could realistically beat him in any leadership challenge, assuming he doesn’t just go meekly into that good night.
Starmer’s natural replacement is, of course, Wes Streeting, who can communicate in a way few others can at the top of any party. But in terms of his political stance, Big Wes is in the wrong place. He makes Starmer look like Diane Abbott.
Not so very long ago, Rachel Reeves was favoured, but we all know what happened there. She’s fortunate to still be at the Treasury.
All of which leaves Andy Burnham – the major soft-left rival who’s not making much effort to put his camouflage on, as he makes manoeuvres. His big problem, though, is that he’s not an MP, and there is no longer any such thing as a “safe” Labour seat into which he might be parachuted.
For now, Donald Trump's visit should dampen down the fevered, panicky speculation about Starmer’s future and blot Burnham out for a few days. It could go horribly wrong – we’re dealing with the capricious master of the art of “the weave” here. But the current rumour is that Trump, who genuinely likes Starmer, won’t hammer him on free speech or embarrass him in front of the King by going on about Peter Mandelson, trans rights or green energy. There should be sufficient good news on trade, technology and investment – plus all the spangly Ruritanian ceremonials – to blot Burnham out for a few days.
Starmer’s resilience may be underestimated, too. He became leader at a dark time for the party, after a near-death experience at the 2019 general election. Difficult as it may be to recall now, at that point Johnson was a political Sun King, planning out his supposedly assured decade in power – and Labour was written off for a generation.
The low point came in May 2021, when Labour actually managed to lose its Hartlepool seat (once represented by Mandelson) to Johnson’s rampant Tories. But Starmer persisted, and a combination of Tory chaos and Labour discipline delivered the victory of July 2024.
In truth, it was as much a rejection of the Tories as a vote of confidence in Labour, and Starmer’s personal ratings have never been that high – he lacks Blair-style star quality, but neither was there anything inevitable about a Labour win. Much of it was down to Starmer’s doggedness and sense of duty.
There may be polls published every day, with enormous leads for Reform UK, but a general election is not around the corner. It is a political eternity away. Things are recoverable – and backbenchers would do well to remember this.
If the economy does grow, public services improve, taxes stop rising, and the boats are finally stopped and the asylum hotels emptied, then the government’s standing will rise. It has happened many times before to seemingly hopelessly beleaguered administrations.
Starmer should also remind his MPs what they have achieved in office already: lower NHS waiting lists, trade deals, renters’ rights, workers’ rights, and now the long-delayed Hillsborough law (a prominent demand of Burnham, as it happens). More to do, as they say, but no need to ditch the manifesto and the leader with which Labour was elected by the British people a little over a year ago.
Politics is fluid and volatile – but that can cut both ways, and leave room for Labour recovery. If Burnham became prime minister in the morning, there would be no more money, public services would still need reforming, and the boats would not suddenly stop traversing the English Channel.
It is up to Starmer’s critics to prove that taking such a drastic step as removing a sitting prime minister would make things better for the British people, as opposed to just making them – the parliamentary Labour party – feel better. They can’t make a case for that, or at least haven’t so far, and that may prove to be Starmer’s greatest strength. He is wobbling, but he won’t fall down.
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