At every election the same question reverberates around the newsroom: “We know what the polls are saying, but what are people really thinking?”
When it comes to the polls, after the last election we’re wary of giving weight to individual samples. And that’s a commonly shared suspicion: a poll on trust (how else to judge it?) after the 2015 election, showed that just 17% of respondents put their faith in psephologists. Although we also probably have to say here that the score for journalists was 11% – marginally better than politicians and estate agents.
So, what are people really thinking? Some of our recent reporting, including Guardian films by John Harris and John Domokos under the Anywhere but Westminster banner during the 2015 election and last year’s referendum, picked up on alienation from London and a sense of despair; Gary Younge’s pieces from Muncie, Indiana, during the US election, also showed that with consistent and committed reporting it is possible to pick up on undercurrents which bypass the polls.
So for this general election, we decided to build upon that work. The national newsdesk, led by Dan Sabbagh, identified six constituencies, each with a backstory:
• Hartlepool Labour for more than half a century but with a strong Ukip showing in 2015.
• Birmingham Erdington Also Labour but emerging as a Tory target, particularly after the election of Conservative Andy Street as mayor of the West Midlands.
• Wells Tory but with a strong Lib Dem presence. Tim Farron made it one of his early visits, setting up a picture opportunity by getting in a small rescue hovercraft to do doughnuts on the beach at Burnham-on-Sea. The impact on voters was questionable.
• Cambridge A Labour gain from Lib Dems at the last election. But with anger about Brexit a new and significant factor, early signs show this could be a close three-way contest.
• Harrow West Labour since 1997 but now 19th on the list of Tory targets.
• Glasgow East First went to the SNP in 2008 byelection, then back to Labour, then SNP again – all after generations of Labour rule. It’s a constituency which, to the astonishment of many residents, recently saw a Conservative councillor elected. Signs of a coming earthquake?
We’re calling our series of reports from these constituencies Voices and votes – putting the premium on voices rather than simple voting intentions. You can catch up with the series here.
We’ve assigned a reporter to each constituency, where they will spend a significant amount of time in the run-up to the election. But for this project we’ve also been reaching out to readers. The Guardian Community team, led by Caroline Bannock, published call-outs on theguardian.com asking readers living in these constituencies to tell us about the issues that were concerning them. The aim is a virtuous circle: readers inform reporting; reporters investigate those themes, publish, and then take part in comments below the line.
The results have proved illuminating. In Erdington, readers identified a decaying high street, sense of segregated communities and frustration with Labour. In Hartlepool, there was that same feeling of neglect from London but also strong local themes. Hartlepool voted 70% leave, against a backdrop of unemployment double the national average and more than 30% of children living in deprived households. And the closure of a local accident and emergency unit still rankles.
Our readers in Cambridge gave us a contrasting picture from their city, which was at the other end of the Brexit scale with a 74% remain vote. Here there is palpable and enduring anger over withdrawal from the EU – but also real concerns about choked transport and affordability of housing.
We heard from more than 250 Guardian readers in Cambridge, which gave reporter Amelia Gentleman a remarkably informed start. As Gentleman says: “The response from Cambridge readers has given a depth to reporting that wouldn’t otherwise have been possible and helped me understand a few things about the campaign in Cambridge: that it will be incredibly close; that the Labour and Lib Dem candidates, who are both former MPs, are (unusually for politicians) both very popular; that whether students are more cross about Brexit or the Lib Dems’ U-turn on tuition fees could be critical to the result.
“What relevance does all this have to the national picture? If the Lib Dems don’t win back Cambridge, which is their number one target seat, then their hopes for a revival are doomed.”
Steven Morris, reporting from Wells, has identified two early threads he found surprising. “One is just how many people don’t know how they are going to vote. I really feel that, for many, those old party loyalties are gone. They are prepared to listen to parties they have never voted for.
“And the only set of people I’ve come across who are saying they are sure were people in the town of Highbridge – one of the more deprived areas. It is striking how many said they were voting Tory because May is the new Thatcher.”
In Wells, we’ll wait to see if there’s any lasting impact caused by local MP James Heappey, who managed to create quite an impression when involved in a staged debate at Millfield school, which went approximately as follows: Schoolgirl (aged 16): “I’m pro-independence.” Tory MP: “Fuck off back to Scotland then.”
That exchange gave Mr Heappey more national press column inches than he’d ever enjoyed before.
As well as underpinning our reporting with readers’ contributions, we’ve also added a layer on top: bringing in the insight and strategy company Britainthinks and working with founding partner Deborah Mattinson running focus groups in our Voices and votes constituencies.
Gary Younge, the Guardian’s editor-at-large, is in Harrow West. He observed one of the focus groups which, he says, delivered perceptive and at times devastating verdicts on the main candidates’ personalities. The voters – all undecided – were asked to imagine both the leaders and their parties. Corbyn was variably described as “nice but ineffective” and as an “ageing uncle”.
“But the verdict on Theresa May was more scathing,” says Younge. “‘Jeremy would buy a round. Teresa wouldn’t,’” said one member of the group. When asked if they would trust the prime minister with their keys if they were on holiday, the consensus was: ‘Yes. But we wouldn’t trust her looking after the pets’.”
We’ll find out about the wisdom of crowds on 9 June.
