In news that likely shocked no one, Vladimir Putin last month announced that he will seek a fifth presidential term in the upcoming March elections.
In a country where Putin, 71, has come to dominate Russia’s political system and the media over the past two decades, the outcome will probably leave little room for imagination.
But while the election appears to be a formality, it will be held in a growingly conservative country that has been fundamentally changed by war, where all dissent has been criminalised and with prominent opposition politicians, such as Alexei Navalny and Ilya Yashin, behind bars.
The elections will be different in terms of the ground they cover too, with voting taking place in what Russia calls its new territories; parts of Ukraine now occupied by Russian forces.
“These elections are a means for Putin to legitimise his decision to go to war in Ukraine,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, based in Moscow.
Authoritarian leaders like Putin rely on elite support to govern, Kolesnikov said, and the elections and campaigning are also aimed at showing the political establishment that he still enjoys public backing despite Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed summer insurrection.
Unsurprisingly, therefore, Putin announced his candidacy at an event in the Kremlin honouring Russian soldiers who had fought in Ukraine, one of whom asked the Russian leader if he would run again.
In a reply that can only be described as political theatre, Putin said that he was not sure whether he would run, claiming he “had different thoughts at different times”, but that he realised now was the time to make a decision.
“I will run for the post of president,” Putin said, flanked by army personnel and their relatives.
While the outcome of previous elections in which Putin has stood were never really in doubt, the Russian leader will be going into this vote in a much better position than many expected.
After fending off Ukraine’s long-awaited summer counteroffensive, the Russian army has now gone on its own attack along Ukraine’s south and east frontlines, while western military support for Kyiv appears to be faltering.
“They’re running out [of weapons] … They don’t have anything, they have no future. But we do have a future,” a self-assured Putin, holding a glass of champagne, said as he announced his nomination.
Observers believe that while Putin will portray an election victory as an endorsement of the war in Ukraine, he could instead place the main focus of his presidential campaign on domestic issues, like the economy and education.
“The very fact that elections are being held is meant to demonstrate to Russians that life goes on as normal. Putin wants to project an aura of calm,” said Marat Gelman, one of his former advisers who is now a critic of the Kremlin leader.
Gelman, who worked on Putin’s 2000 election campaign, said: “The message will be that while that the war is here to say, it doesn’t prevent Russians from living a regular, happy life.”
In Russia’s big cities, the war has largely faded into background noise with the Kremlin successfully managing to weather the western sanctions imposed on the country since the start of the war. Crucially, the west has been unable to effectively curb Russia’s oil revenues.
Experts said there was also another reason why Putin might shunt the war into the background in the run-up to the election.
Recent polling has suggested that some in the country were growing tired of the war, which shows no sign of stopping.
When quizzed by the Levada Center, an independent polling organisation, on what Russians would like to ask Putin, the most popular question was “when the invasion of Ukraine will end?”
Another survey showed that almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, outnumbering for the first time those who want to keep fighting.
Particularly sensitive is the topic of whether Putin is planning to order a new mobilisation after securing his fifth term. The decision last year to announce a nationwide mobilisation led to the biggest overnight drop in support for Putin in 30 years of polling.
Putin’s likely re-election campaign also serves as a way to signal to the elites that he is still firmly in control of the country, said Abbas Galyamov, a political consultant and former speechwriter for the Russian president.
“For Putin, it is crucial to show the elites that he represents the people. That it is futile to go against him,” said Galyamov.
The failed rebellion of Prigozhin, the now dead leader of the Wagner mercenary group, left many in the Russian political elite rattled, Galyamov said, raising questions over the regime’s stability.
“After the rebellion, the Kremlin is especially suspicious of traitors,” said Gelman, adding that the election campaign presents an opportunity to “stress test” officials across the country.
Much has changed since Putin’s last election victory in 2018, which was supposed to be his final term until he orchestrated constitutional reforms allowing him to remain in power until 2036.
In the run-up to those elections, Putin launched a get-out-the-vote campaign, apparently concerned that his popularity might not be enough to get voters to the polls. Incentives included raffles for prizes of iPhone Xs and cars.
He also permitted Ksenia Sobchak, the outspoken socialite, journalist and daughter of Putin’s political mentor to run against him, a move intended to inject a veneer of competition and legitimacy into the election. While Putin’s most serious rival, the opposition leader Navalny, was barred from the race, he was still a free man.
In the harsher, more authoritarian reality of today’s Russia, the Kremlin could opt against propping up Kremlin “stalking horses”, said Kolesnikov, the Carnegie analyst.
“There may not be a need for a so-called liberal candidate … The system no longer needs people like Vladislav Surkov,” said Kolesnikov, referring to the former Kremlin puppet master who is believed to be the chief architect of a system often described as “managed democracy”.
But Gelman said it was still likely that the Kremlin would put forward an anti-war candidate, but ensure they would receive a tiny percentage of the vote.
“The point is to crush the anti-war movement on the ballot. Those who are against the war need to feel that they are in the absolute minority.”
