The Public Health Ministry expects the number of new Covid-19 cases to decline to about 5,000 per day before the end of next month.
However, the ministry remains concerned that daily infections may again rise and warns about the risk of more outbreaks.
The 5,000 cases per day estimate is simply a statistical projection, Dr Kiattiphum Wongrajit, permanent secretary for public health, said on Tuesday, adding that a risk of new infections increasing remains because of several factors.
Key factors that could trigger a new surge in daily infections include infection clusters and the spread of new variants of the coronavirus, Dr Kiattiphum said.
The proportion of infected patients with severe symptoms who require intensive care is also projected to drop dramatically when the number of new cases comes down, he said.
This apparent improvement in the situation is a result of lockdowns and restrictions in areas regarded as outbreak dark-red zones, he said, combined with mass testing and the ongoing national vaccination campaign.
"The risk of a large cluster of new infections occurring is still out there, yet it is very low, while the possibility of a new variant of the virus spreading is still rated by experts as not high," he said.
Dr Kiattiphum continued, "We should be able to live with another Covid-19 outbreak if it occurs, and if it does it would be expected to subside enough by March next year when we could again be back to a more normal situation."
By then, the number of Covid-19 patients developing severe illness or dying should become very close to that from influenza, he said.
