WASHINGTON _ Those looking at polls to find out who's ahead in the hard-fought Virginia governor's race have a case of whiplash.
The contest is the most-watched of the season, coming almost exactly a year after President Donald Trump's election in a place whose electorate resembles the United States writ small.
Democrats and Republicans consider the race a bellwether for views of Trump's presidency, and the president's antics in Washington have overshadowed the two candidates, Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie.
Those working on the campaigns consider the race to be close, making it all the weirder that recent polls have shown rather comfortable leads _ for both candidates.
A Fox News poll released Oct. 17 gave Northam a 7-point advantage: 49 percent-42 percent. A survey by Hampton University, released Oct. 22, had Gillespie ahead by 8 points, 41 percent-33 percent. A poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, released Friday, had Northam ahead by 7, 50 percent-43 percent.
The differences stem from the alchemy of polling, which combines research and other factors to come up with a reasonable expectation of which voters actually will show up on Election Day. As the 2016 presidential contest showed, variation in turnout _ say a higher rural vote benefiting Trump or a lower African-American turnout hurting Hillary Clinton _ can produce unforeseen results.
In Virginia, the latest three polls seemed to differ on the make-up of the electorate.
In the Fox poll, 45 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats, to 42 percent Republican and 13 percent independents. In the Hampton poll, the proportion of Republicans rose, with 49 percent saying they leaned Republican, to 37 percent leaning Democratic. In the Wason Center survey, Democrats represented 36 percent of the sample and Republicans 33 percent.
It's a pithy cliche of politics, most often uttered by the candidate trailing as voting nears: The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.
In Virginia this year, that happens to be true.
