The Minnesota Vikings return to U.S. Bank Stadium this week to start a three-game stretch to decide their playoff future. First up, the first of two duels against the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
The Lions have been near the top of the NFC since the beginning of the season. They had their slip-ups, but at 10-4, they have firm control of the NFC North and are setting their sights on the coveted number-one seed and that first-round bye. Their offense has been outstanding this season, ranking fifth in points and third in total yards behind a balanced attack.
Before Saturday, the Vikings defense was on a tear. They allowed 20+ points only twice in eight games, including an exemplary 3-0 shutout win against the Las Vegas Raiders. The same Raiders that came back and put up 63 points on the Los Angeles Chargers four days later.
On Saturday, that all changed as former Viking Jake Browning lit up the Vikings’ defense for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Tee Higgins shined brightest when Ja’Marr Chase left early with a shoulder injury. Higgins caught four of his eight targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns, including a sensational highlight over Akayleb Evans.
As this defense licks their wounds, they need to regroup fast against one of the top offenses in the game today. To do that, they must follow these four keys to limit this Detroit offense.
Jared does not Goff-script
It may sound funny reading it, but Jared Goff is not a dual-threat quarterback. According to Sumer Sports, Goff only scrambles on 1.3% of his dropbacks. That’s third-lowest in the league in front of only Kirk Cousins (0.9%) and Aidan O’Connell (0%).
This is no secret, yet Goff still has a 67% completion percentage (eighth-best in the NFL), 26 passing touchdowns (third-best) and 7.5 yards per attempt (seventh-best). The Lions are fifth in the NFL in EPA/pass.
How is Goff doing it? The Detroit offense is designed to get the ball out of Goff’s hands and into the hands of the offense’s dynamic playmakers. Goff’s 7.2 air yards is tied for sixth-least in the NFL, again with Cousins.
To combat this is simple: be the Vikings. Make Goff question everything he’s seeing while he’s standing in the pocket. The longer the ball is in his hands, the more opportunity for a Danielle Hunter or a blitzing Josh Metellus to put pressure on the pocket. Even if getting pressure isn’t the goal, rush Goff’s decision-making with the line looks.
Always expect the unexpected
One aspect of Ben Johnson’s offense that makes it so dangerous is the usage of his weapons anywhere in the lineup.
Tight end Sam LaPorta can be an x-receiver in a three tight end shotgun set, while receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can line up in the backfield opposite of David Montgomery.
Johnson will use these positions to get a matchup that the offense can exploit. This Detroit Lions team has used 14 unique personnel groupings, including an empty shotgun set that used three tight ends, rookie running back Jahmyrr Gibbs and St. Brown
Minnesota’s versatility on defense with its three safeties is a perfect answer to these unique personnel groupings.
Camryn Bynum is due for a bounce-back game after his performance on Saturday. Josh Metellus and Harrison Smith rotate around the defense to cause confusion at the line of scrimmage while also having the threat of dropping into zone coverage or matching up athletically in man-to-man.
It's Diversity Day!
When asked about Detroit’s running game, Flores described it in one word: diverse. Just like their passing game, the running game uses a variety of different run concepts to get their running backs in space and to the second and third levels.
According to The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner, the Lions were charted to have 26 different variations of just counter in Bobby Peters’ book “The 2022 Detroit Lions Complete Offensive Manual.”
With the stakes getting higher by the week and the Vikings sporting one of the top run defenses in the NFL, prepare for everything including the kitchen sink to be thrown at the Vikings on the ground.
That means end-arounds to Kalif Raymond and jet sweeps to St. Brown to stretch the defense horizontally. There will be the power and duo runs to establish the run in the interior. Everything will be on the menu for the Lions.
Minnesota has been disciplined thus far in their run fits, making running the football against them a chore. They are tenth in EPA per rush allowed and it starts up front with their nose tackle and Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee Harrison Phillips. He is currently fourth among defensive tackles in run-stop win rate and is the heartbeat of this run defense.
Gear up for a war
Usually, defenses are the ones that are reactionary to whatever the offense is trying to do. Offenses are in charge of the tempo and the defense is just in charge of stopping them.
With Flores, the defense dictates a lot more due to the aggressive nature of his philosophy. Cincinnati picked up the blitzes well, which made it easier for the Bengals to push the ball downfield. That’s how they ended up taking control of the game in the second half and allowing Browning to find his receivers down the field.
The Detroit offense will try to take control of the game via their running game and grinding the defense down with their offensive line. It is up to Minnesota to get this Lions offense off the field and get the hands back into the hands of the Vikings offense.
