The Victorian government is facing defeat after only one term in office, with a new opinion poll finding Labor comfortably ahead just one month from the election.
The Ipsos poll published in the Age on Thursday showed the Coalition trailing Labor 44% to 56% after preferences.
If that result was replicated at the election on 29 November, the government would lose as many as 10 seats and become the first to be thrown out of office after a single term since 1955, when Labor split and spent decades in the wilderness.
The one bright spot for the Coalition was that the premier, Denis Napthine, remains the preferred premier, ahead of Labor’s Daniel Andrews, by 45% to 36%. There was a surge for the Greens, with 17% support compared with 11% at the last election. The Palmer United party, which has said it will stand candidates only in the upper house, is languishing on 2%.
Polling experts such as William Bowe questioned the extent of Labor’s lead, saying Ipsos had relied on respondent-allocated preferences, which tend to favour Labor. If preferences were distributed based on the 2010 election, the results would be 53% to 47%.
That is consistent with other polls released over the past week. ReachTEL for the Seven Network had Labor ahead by the same margin, and a Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun found Labor in front 52% to 48%.
Both major parties say privately they expect the election to tighten as voters focus in coming weeks. But Labor has been consistently ahead for more than a year and remains preferred on issues identified as most important to Victorians. Ipsos found Labor was considered best to manage health, education and employment – the three issues considered most important – as well as public transport and the environment.
The Coalition led on only three issues – financial management, law and order and roads.
The government believes the federal Coalition is hurting its chances. This week Napthine refused repeatedly to say whether Tony Abbott would be invited to the government’s formal campaign launch in just over a week, saying only that the prime minister was welcome to attend. Opinion polls indicate that support for the federal government has collapsed in Victoria.
But the government has also inflicted its own wounds. It changed leaders halfway through the term, and endured months of turmoil caused by Frankston MP Geoff Shaw, who is now an independent.
The government’s signature infrastructure project, the East West Link, remains contentious, although it is unclear which party will benefit. The ReachTEL poll found 48% of respondents wanted the 18km toll road to go ahead, while almost 30% were opposed. More than 22% remained undecided.
