Some quick, but important, caveats up front. The first is the strong swing to Labor in Victoria will likely come back as the impact of pre-poll and postal votes register in the count; and the swings, statewide, are variable. The second is local factors are the most important driver of the result on Saturday night. Scott Morrison wasn’t on the ballot, and neither was Bill Shorten, and both gave the contest a wide berth.
But with that noted, federal factors are part of this story.
That inconvenience can’t be spun away, despite the valiant efforts of the federal treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, on the ABC on Saturday night to inoculate himself and his colleagues from the result by noting they were nowhere near the car crash.
Do feel free to ignore Frydenberg’s talking points.
Liberals in Canberra have been worried throughout the state campaign about the electoral impact of dumping Malcolm Turnbull in Australia’s most progressive state. Federal Liberals know the mood is volatile, and they haven’t helped Matthew Guy.
On Saturday night the impact was finally felt, and it was crushing.
The eastern suburbs of Melbourne is middle Australia, and middle Australia, on Saturday night, swung away from the Liberals and strongly to Labor.
Conservative-leaning parts of Melbourne backed the most progressive political leader in the country, and did so emphatically, possibly because Daniel Andrews has just kept his head, set some objectives, and got on with things. As the premier said Saturday night: “We live our values, we keep our promises, and we get things done.”
Labor’s primary vote in Saturday’s state contest is north of 40%, the Liberals south of 30%, and the swing against the Liberals in Melbourne is in the order of 8%.
The big repudiation in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs will send a chill through Liberal MPs in Canberra as they return on Monday to a parliament where the Coalition no longer governs in majority in either house. As this grueling, ugly, dispiriting, political year bumps to a close, MPs on the government benches are contemplating their own mortality.
Saturday night will send a chill, particularly, through the Victorian MPs in Canberra who moved against Turnbull in August.
On this result, you would not want to have backed Peter Dutton in the leadership challenge. You would not want to have to explain that decision to your constituents, given Saturday night’s verdict.
The bloodbath will also create pressure on the party organisation in Victoria, which was up to its neck, controversially, in the intrigues that triggered the third Liberal leadership change in Canberra in two terms, and will also have to wear the consequences of the state backlash on Saturday night.
The state organisation, both in the federal and the state spheres, has helped to engineer this shellacking, and the internal fury is such that there will be a reckoning.
