The final day of the Victorian election campaign has become a scramble for critical bayside seats and a continuing stoush over the biggest issue in this campaign, the East West Link toll road and tunnel.
The premier, Denis Napthine, and the Labor leader, Daniel Andrews, both campaigned in the seat of Bentleigh, one of four so-called “sand-belt” seats in the south-eastern suburbs that delivered the Coalition victory at the last election. It is held by the government by a margin of just 0.8%.
Napthine was joined by the foreign minister, Julie Bishop, who is considered the most popular federal government minister. Federal policies such as the $7 GP co-payment and the proposed deregulation of university fees have damaged the government’s chances for re-election, according the Coalition.
The former prime minister John Howard campaigned in the marginal Labor of Yan Yean in Melbourne’s outer suburbs. After a redistribution of boundaries, it is notionally held by the Liberals by 0.1%, even though the sitting member is Labor’s Danielle Green.
Andrews, who polls suggest is likely to become premier after Saturday’s election, also descended on Bentleigh. He was joined by the federal Labor leader, Bill Shorten, and the former premier Steve Bracks.
Napthine sought to distance himself from his federal colleagues, saying he was opposed to any GP co-payment for children. The federal government needed to “go back to the drawing board” on the issue and discuss it with the states, he said.
“I think that [for] people who are on low incomes, there should be no cost whatsoever,” he said.
Bishop said the federal government remained “committed to the co-payment – it’s government policy”.
Tony Abbott’s unpopularity in Victoria has been exploited by Labor, which opinion polls have consistently indicated is likely to win. The prime minister has visited Victoria three times since the election began but has not campaigned in marginal seats. Shorten remarked upon his absence, saying the prime minister was in “witness protection”.
A Galaxy poll published in the Herald Sun on Friday showed Labor ahead 52% to 48% on a two party-preferred basis, a consistent result for the past three months. It showed Andrews closing in on Napthine as preferred premier, up eight points from a week ago.
“We’re going to give Victorians a clear choice, a choice between tired old negatives … and an optimistic and positive plan,” Andrews said.
But the Galaxy poll had good news for the government, finding 60% of respondents want the Coalition’s $17bn East West Link project. The contract for the first stage was signed just before the formal campaign began. But other polls which give voters a choice about which transport projects should be the biggest priority suggest people also support public transport projects and the removal of dangerous level crossings.
Andrews has said repeatedly that a Labor government would not build the link and would prioritise public transport, despite warnings from the government that ripping up the contracts would leave the state exposed to a $1.1bn compensation bill.
The Labor leader denied compensation would be needed, although the party has contingency plans in case it is required. “I don’t think there will be any need to do that [legislate],” he told ABC radio. “I don’t think these contracts are worth the paper they’re written on.”
He said he would release the details of the contract and the business case if Labor won the election. The government has said these are commercial-in-confidence. If Labor won, it would sit down with the winning bidders to discuss options, including other infrastructure projects.
Labor needs a state-wide swing of 0.9% to win the election. The critical seats are the four sand-belt electorates along the Frankston train line – Frankston, Mordialloc, Carrum and Bentleigh, all held by the government on tight margins. Also important are the regional cities of Ballarat and Geelong and the outer suburban seats of Yan Yean, Monbulk, Eltham and Cranbourne.
Labor is battling the Greens in the inner-city seats of Melbourne, Brunswick, Northcote and Richmond. The Greens are also campaigning strongly in the seat of Prahran, which is held by the Liberal party by 4.4%.
The Greens leader, Greg Barber, said he expected a Labor victory on Saturday, and he expected the Greens would do well. Polling indicates the Greens on about 13% of the vote, up two points from the last election.
“All year, voters have been telling us they don’t want to see a party where one party controls both houses,” he said.
